A student-backed electoral list in Serbia has a narrow lead over the list aligned with President Aleksandar Vučić, according to a survey published by the Belgrade-based journal Nova srpska politička misao (NSPM), five days before the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 25.
The poll found that 44.5% of decided voters support the student list “Studenti pobeđuju” (Students Are Winning), compared with 42.7% for “Ujedinjena Srbija” (United Serbia), the list associated with Vučić.
The survey was conducted by telephone between September 25 and October 5 among a representative sample of 1,050 respondents in Serbia, excluding Kosovo. The research was carried out for NSPM’s own purposes and is not an official election forecast.
Undecided respondents accounted for 18.3% of those surveyed, while the reported support for electoral lists was calculated excluding undecided voters.
The other lists received significantly lower levels of support. The “Factor of Stability” list led by Ivica Dačić secured 2.9%, followed by “European Serbia – M. Tepić – Z. Ponoš” with 2.7% and “Authentic Right – Miloš Jovanović” with 2.5%. Other lists collectively received 2%, while 2.7% of respondents said they opposed the government but had not decided whom to support.
Public Opinion on Vučić and the Government
Asked whether Vučić, who has resigned from the Serbian presidency, had performed well in office, 41.8% of respondents answered positively, while 44.5% said he had not. Another 13.7% expressed no opinion.
The survey also examined public preferences regarding the country’s political future. Some 44% of respondents said Serbia would be best served by a victory for students and the opposition. Meanwhile, 22.5% favoured retaining the current government, while 19.4% supported keeping the government in power with certain changes.
Regarding the student movement and its electoral list, 48.1% viewed them as an expression of domestic dissatisfaction with the government. By contrast, 26.8% believed the movement was an operation conducted by foreign intelligence services.
Turnout Expectations, EXPO 2027 and EU Membership
The survey indicated a high stated willingness to participate in the upcoming elections. A total of 79.8% of respondents said they would definitely vote, while another 13.3% said they would probably turn out.
Public opinion was more divided over other major issues. Some 43.6% opposed hosting EXPO 2027 in Belgrade, compared with 37.8% who supported the event.
On Serbia’s potential membership in the European Union, 41.3% said they would vote in favour in a referendum, while 39.6% said they would vote against accession.
NSPM Warns of Political Polarization
In a note accompanying the findings, NSPM stressed that the figures represent the results of its regular autumn survey rather than a projection of the parliamentary election outcome. The journal said it might publish a separate election forecast in the following days.
NSPM also argued that Serbia, under the current government, had fallen below the minimum threshold for electoral democracy. It described the pre-election atmosphere as highly polarized, with two political blocs competing closely and one holding a slight advantage.
With election day approaching, the findings suggest a tightly contested race between the student-backed list and Vučić’s political camp. However, the survey should not be interpreted as a definitive prediction of the final result.
