Since 2011, when talks began for the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, they have been conducted under the mediation of three different heads of EU foreign policy—Catherine Ashton, Federica Mogherini, and Josep Borrell.
Each of them has made their contribution, and numerous meetings and agreements have been reached. However, the final goal remains distant.
The political leaders of the negotiations, Albin Kurti of Kosovo and Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia, have not met since September 14, 2023.
Ten days later, the attack in Banjska took place, where armed Serbian groups attacked the Kosovo Police, killing one officer. This escalation—the most severe in years—has pushed the relations between the two countries to a critical point.
The outgoing EU foreign policy chief, Borrell, made one final attempt on June 26 to bring Kurti and Vučić together, but it was unsuccessful.
“It was the eleventh meeting of the leaders I have chaired. It was a meeting with leaders, not between them. Because this time, there was no tripartite meeting,” Borrell said.
The EU’s foreign policy will now be led by former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.
This week, Kallas appeared at a hearing before the European Parliament, where she spoke about the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, the threat from China, the need for stronger European defense, and other issues. However, surprisingly, she said little about the Western Balkans—a region where the EU has significant influence and is directly involved in processes, including the mediation of talks between Kosovo and Serbia.
She made no specific comments on the dialogue she will be leading, only promising that the EU’s enlargement to the Western Balkans will become a reality.
“I really think we need to have a success story in the next five years, because this is not only for the prosperity of the region but also to give hope to it,” Kallas said.
Rikard Jozwiak, Radio Free Europe’s editor for Europe, says he is surprised by the neglect of the Western Balkans in her foreign policy speech.
He had expected Kallas to mention it alongside other important regions such as Ukraine and the Middle East. He also expected special attention to be given to the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.
“The fact that she didn’t mention the Western Balkans during the 15-minute speech, and then only had one question from the MEPs, shocked me. Similarly, no European Parliament member seems interested in a region that is so close to the EU,” said Jozwiak.
Among the most urgent political challenges, Leon Hartwell, a senior fellow at LSE IDEAS – London School of Economics, says Kallas has likely chosen to prioritize the overall security of the EU and leave the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue on the back burner.
“The issues that will certainly dominate her time in office are the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, relations between the EU and the US, especially after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections, and China will remain a major issue, as will energy security, and so on. The Kosovo-Serbia dialogue will not receive immediate attention unless there are security problems, which are very possible,” Hartwell said on Radio Free Europe’s Expose program.
In recent years, the escalation of tensions between Kosovo and Serbia has continually generated challenges and conflicts. The European Union has repeatedly called on representatives from both countries to seek a solution through negotiations.
Despite this, a sustainable resolution remains far off, and the EU cannot afford to neglect the dialogue for too long, says Hartwell.
“The potential for instability is quite high, and this is definitely not an issue to be neglected. Especially considering that the Balkans is a vulnerable zone for Europe. Whatever happens in the Balkans, it doesn’t stay only there; it has a significant ripple effect across the rest of Europe,” Hartwell stated.
Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti has set several conditions for the continuation of the dialogue, including Serbia’s handover of those responsible for the attack in Banjska.
At times, he has accused the European Union of “pampering” Serbia—an accusation the EU has denied.
In a recent address, he said he expects new dynamics from the new European Commission regarding the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, but did not elaborate further.
Serbian President Vučić, on the other hand, has repeatedly demanded that Kosovo establish the Association of Serb-majority municipalities, a demand stemming from an agreement made in 2013.
Jozwiak believes that many moves in the dialogue process will intensify after Kosovo completes its parliamentary elections in February 2025.
When asked what might push things forward, Jozwiak recalls a conversation with former EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who mediated the first agreement for the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia:
“She said the secret sauce is to engage and talk, and talk, and talk and get to know the two leaders. Now we have—let’s call them—two strong statesmen in Kosovo and Serbia, who have strong support in their countries.”
“These two men will either make or not make an agreement. And Kaja Kallas, or whoever is in her position, will have to drink a lot of coffee with them or do other things,” said Jozwiak.
For Hartwell, the ball is primarily in the EU’s court. According to him, Kallas must encourage the five non-recognizing EU countries—Greece, Slovakia, Spain, Cyprus, and Romania—to recognize Kosovo and thus pressure Serbia to drop its refusal to recognize Kosovo.
“As long as Serbia sees Kosovo as part of its territory, it has an obligation to protect everything that happens there, and this creates an atmosphere of insecurity. That’s the first thing.”
“Secondly, any agreement the EU promotes between Serbia and Kosovo must be a step forward towards Kosovo’s recognition. Kallas cannot focus on maintaining the status quo. She needs to push reciprocity forward,” Hartwell says.
After more than a decade of negotiations, Kosovo and Serbia have reached dozens of agreements—from free movement to the recognition of state symbols—but many remain unimplemented, and the sides accuse each other of inaction.
None of the interviewees expects the European Union to increase its cooperation with the United States on this issue, especially as the US will have a new administration starting in January.
Jozwiak is skeptical about the current US interest in engaging with this issue.
“It would make sense for the EU and the US to be on the same page in the Western Balkans. But I have the feeling that the dialogue will remain with the EU. I’m not sure that the US has any real interest in being at the forefront when it comes to the Western Balkans. Maybe that will change,” said Jozwiak.
In Hartwell’s words, Kaja Kallas, being Estonian, “knows well what it means to live next to a very large neighbor that poses a constant existential threat to your security.” He refers here to Russia, which shares a border of nearly 300 kilometers with Estonia.
Hartwell is convinced that Kallas will not prioritize the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue but emphasizes that it is important that she does not neglect it entirely. A proactive approach would not only ease tensions between the two countries but also help the region’s stability in general, he says.
In a meeting with Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani in 2021, the then-Estonian Prime Minister emphasized the need to improve relations between Kosovo and Serbia, reasoning that a secure Western Balkans “is in the interest of all of Europe.”
As for how much longer the negotiations, which began in 2011 and have often produced insecurity instead of solutions, will last, no one can say. But let’s hope it’s not another 13 years. /REL/
