Europeans are aging and this will bring about a significant change in the composition and corresponding needs of their societies, as well as serious implications for European economies.
By the year 2100, almost 10% of the total population in the European Union will be over 85 years old, according to research by the Bruegel Institute, in Brussels.
The gradual retirement of the generation of the so-called “baby boomers”, i.e. those born between 1946 and 1964, will also have an impact on European policies.
For example, the stated objectives of the EU. for the green and digital transition will not be achieved if the aging of the population and the subsequent change in the working-age population are not taken into account.
The authors of the report admit, however, that the increase in life expectancy is a success of past European policies, combined with other factors, but emphasize the challenges that arise, especially for pension systems.
According to survey data, the number of people aged over 65 (the average retirement age in the EU) is expected to increase from 36% in 2022 to 55% in 2050 and 65% in 2100.
For example, while in 2022 there were about 2.7 workers per elderly person in the EU, this number will decrease to 1.5 in 2100.
Three factors explain this trend: the increase in life expectancy, the significant contraction of the working-age population between 2022 and 2070, while below birth rates will increase, and thirdly, the projected migration flows will no longer compensate for the aging trend of population.
The “gap” between northern and southern European countries causes a special sensation.
“There really is a gap between Southern and Northern European countries in terms of aging societies.
Already today there are more people aged over 85 compared to the working age population in the South of Europe than in the North.
Greece, in fact, records some of the highest overall rates. According to the data, in Greece in 2022 the percentage of the 65-74 age group was 19.21%, respectively 75-84 at 13.18% and over 84 at 6.35%.
In the period 2022-2100, the percentage of those over 84 will reach 14.5% of the total population, the 75-84 age group will be 8.77%, while the 65-74 group will reach only 3.43%.
In some Member States, however, the primary pension system operates on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning that workers’ pension contributions are used to fund the pensions of current retirees.
Demographic changes suggest that a relatively smaller workforce will be supported by a larger retiree population.
The Commission foresees an increase in the average expenditure of EU public pensions. from 11.4% of GDP in 2022 to 12.1% by 2045, followed by a decline to 11.8% of GDP in 2070. /abcnews
