Anxious about the Balkans, the US aspires to increased engagement

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RKS NEWS 9 Min Read
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Not far from last month, US intelligence published a report, where it said that “the Western Balkans are likely to face an increased risk of localized inter-ethnic violence during 2024”.

The report by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned that “Balkan nationalist leaders are likely to exacerbate tensions for their own political advantage, while external actors amplify and exploit ethnic differences to maintain their influence.” in the region”.

In the wake of these concerns, the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee approved a cross-party bill last week, which aims to increase the engagement of the United States in the Western Balkans.

One of the drafters of the bill, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, told the Voice of America that the United States, clearly, will not tolerate efforts to undermine peace and stability in the region.

“I wrote this bill focusing on the opportunity to deepen our commitment and investment in the region, through strengthening trade relations and economic cooperation, and to highlight the tools the US has to respond to the impact malfeasance, corruption and other efforts aimed at undermining the region’s democratic aspirations,” said Shaheen.

Edward P. Joseph, a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University in the US, tells Radio Free Europe’s Expose program that American senators are concerned about the region, which, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, “is even more important, but even less sustainable”.

“This is the reason why the most important elements in the bill are economic. The codification of the authority of sanctions against those who threaten stability and engage in corrupt behavior sends a strong signal,” says Joseph. The draft law, among other things, attaches importance to the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia and emphasizes that the two countries should aim to immediately implement the obligations arising from the Ohrid Agreement for the normalization of relations.

“When sufficient progress has been made in implementing the agreement, the United States should consider promoting initiatives to strengthen bilateral relations with both countries,” the bill states.

Part of it also talks about the instability in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as a result of the secessionist rhetoric of the Serbian leader, Milorad Dodik.

The parliamentary and local elections in Serbia, held last December, as well as the irregularities evident in these processes, are also singled out, estimating that they “cause deep concern for the state of democracy” in this country.

The bill calls for all of these issues to be addressed and urges the US to assist the Western Balkans countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – in improving the functioning of the state. legal and in making reforms.

Charles Kupchan, former director of European affairs at the US National Security Council, tells Expose that the new bill comes at a time of “increased anxiety in the US” about the security situation in the Western Balkans.

“It is a package that aims to increase economic ties with the region, but also leverage the US in pursuing those who cause trouble in the Balkans”, according to him.

The new US bill, in addition to warnings about Russia’s influence in the Balkans, also draws attention to China’s “growing influence”. Kupchan says he would not consider it a “game changer”, but rather an “attempt to turn the situation around”. in the right direction”.

“And I think that the strongest lever that the United States and the European Union have is integration, it is the improvement of the way of life, it is the anchoring in the Atlantic institutions – both in the EU and in NATO”.

“I think that, in many aspects, this draft law conveys the message that we are here, look to us, don’t lose faith, don’t lose hope, keep moving towards integration in the Atlantic institutions and we will help you”, he says Kupchan.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago, concerns have grown in the West that the Kremlin may be trying to foment instability in the Balkans to deflect some of the attention from its war in the neighboring country. .

There are doubts that Russia’s main ally in the region, Serbia, is also involved in an armed attack that took place last September in Banjska, Kosovo, where a Kosovar policeman was killed.

The Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, has on several occasions said that Serbia, with the “methods” of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, poses a danger to Kosovo. But, apparently, this perception is broader than that. A poll by the International Republican Institute in the US, released last week, singled out Serbia as the biggest risk for half of the citizens of the Western Balkans.

In testimony earlier in the day before the US Senate Armed Services Committee, NATO’s supreme commander for Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, blamed Russia for fueling inter-ethnic tensions in the Balkans and said Serbia was suspected of being involved in these influence operations.

He said that he has already authorized the sending of more NATO troops to Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“We have done a review of the plan and it has shown that we need not only more forces in the region, but also heavier NATO artillery. The troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina and those in Kosovo must be reinforced for surveillance, detection and threat monitoring,” said Cavoli.

In an article published earlier this month in Bloomberg, former commander of NATO’s allied forces for Europe, James Stavridis, wrote that, in addition to additional stabilizing forces in the region, NATO must also consider the so-called war Russian hybrids.

“Putin is good at using social media, disinformation campaigns and pro-Russian propaganda to create tensions outside his borders. “NATO must use its information networks to expose and oppose these false narratives,” Stavridis said. In this spirit, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, speaking last week in support of aid to Ukraine, said that if Putin is allowed, he will continue to march through Europe, Radio Free Europe.

“I think it can also go to the Balkans,” said Johnson.

The US Western Balkans bill, titled the Western Balkans Democracy and Progress Act, replaces a similar bill proposed to the US Congress in August 2022.

To become law, it must be approved by the Senate and the House of Representatives, before being signed by the US president.

Kupchan says that these procedures will be a challenge in themselves, because, according to him, “a significant part of the Republican Party in the US views foreign aid with skeptical, if not hostile, eyes.”

“This may be the time to advance the draft law on the Balkans, because in the House of Representatives there is a disposition to pass several packages. But it can also be difficult, because if more money is allocated to Ukraine and Israel, the question arises: will the members of Congress be ready to approve a new aid package for the Balkans as well? We will see how the situation will develop”, he says.

In the United States this year is an election year, and Kupchan says it would be better to try to get Balkans legislation passed now – during the current administration.

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