Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western intelligence services have increasingly accused Moscow of engaging in hybrid warfare. This phenomenon is not new, but the methods are becoming more sophisticated.
Incidents such as the crash of a German DHL cargo plane in Lithuania, damage to two communication cables in the Baltic Sea, and a pro-Russian extremist in Romania surprisingly reaching the presidential election runoff—are recent developments that make one wonder if they are all linked by the same force: Russia. While these incidents have not been conclusively proven to be the work of Russia, Western politicians and intelligence agencies are concerned about the increasing threat posed by Russian hybrid warfare, which has grown significantly since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
What Is Hybrid Warfare?
Hybrid warfare expands traditional military operations by incorporating tools like espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks, election interference, and propaganda campaigns to weaken and destabilize the enemy from within. Experts warn that Russia has significantly expanded its hybrid warfare capabilities in recent years. Here is an overview:
- Espionage
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European states have expelled around 500 Russian diplomats, with at least 400 of them classified as spies. Modern espionage technology has been reportedly installed in many Russian embassies and consulates, although this cannot be fully verified due to the diplomatic protections of embassy premises. Russian spies have been suspected of infiltrating Western institutions under the guise of businessmen.
There have been numerous reports of Russian espionage activities, from intercepted communications in Germany regarding the Taurus missile defense system, to suspected Russian drones over European airbases, and ships reportedly mapping critical infrastructure on the seabed in Northern Europe for possible sabotage.
- Sabotage
Recently, it was reported that a Chinese cargo ship, captained by a Russian, likely damaged two underwater cables by dragging an anchor along the sea floor. This incident recalls a similar sabotage operation in October 2023. Other sabotage activities include an attack on a warehouse in London storing aid for Ukraine, and a package explosion at a DHL logistics center in Leipzig. While none of these activities have been definitively proven to be Russian sabotage, European intelligence agencies warn that such acts have significantly increased in the past year. - Cyberattacks
Germany’s Federal Office for Information Security warns that the cyber threat level is “higher than ever.” Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian-linked hacking groups were already particularly active in Germany, engaging in cyber espionage and financially motivated ransomware attacks. Since the war, the range of cyber threats has expanded. DDoS attacks by pro-Russian hackers targeting websites and institutional servers have become more frequent, as have attempts to infiltrate protected networks of companies and institutions. - Disinformation and Propaganda
Another major component of hybrid warfare is influencing public opinion in the targeted country. To do this, Russia spreads false information and pro-Russian or anti-Ukrainian narratives, often through “troll factories” on social media or through Russian foreign media outlets.
In early 2024, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that 50,000 fake social media accounts were spreading pro-Russian propaganda and connecting to fake websites that resembled legitimate news outlets but were designed to disseminate false stories.
- Election Interference and Political Processes
A primary goal of these disinformation campaigns is to reduce popular support for Ukraine, as well as to destabilize political systems in targeted (democratic) countries by supporting extreme parties and candidates. For instance, in April, Czech intelligence discovered a propaganda website called “Voice of Europe,” allegedly funded by Moscow, which paid bribes to various European lawmakers, including Petr Bystron of the far-right AfD party, although he denies the accusations.
Western intelligence services have accused Russia of influencing elections in numerous countries across Europe, North and South America. For example, Russia’s RT channel is said to have produced videos during the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign that focused on controversial topics such as aid to Ukraine, migration, or the economy, and these were later spread by right-wing bloggers in the U.S.
Another aspect of this is “hack-and-leak” operations, where politicians or parties are hacked, and sensitive documents—sometimes mixed with falsified materials—are published just before elections. This was seen in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections and the 2017 French presidential campaign.
- Targeted Assassinations
Targeted killings of opposition leaders are also part of hybrid warfare. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not shied away from using violence abroad. Notable examples include the 2006 poisoning of former Russian FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko in London and the 2018 poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the UK.
In 2024, it was revealed that Russia was behind an assassination attempt on Armin Papperger, CEO of the German arms company Rheinmetall, which supplies tanks to Ukraine. Russia has denied all accusations.
What Can Be Done?
Russia is currently attacking through various forms in Europe, says Sönke Marahrens, a Bundeswehr officer and hybrid security expert. “Russian operators are trying many different tactics in many European countries, tailoring them to each country individually: hybrid measures that work in Poland may not work in Germany; what works in Germany may not work in Finland.” Therefore, a wide range of attacks can be expected in the future, Marahrens believes. But the flexibility required to respond to these attacks must also be high.
Conclusion
Hybrid warfare continues to evolve as Russia uses a combination of traditional and non-traditional tactics to destabilize countries and influence global politics. With the expansion of these activities, it is crucial for nations to strengthen their defenses against these multifaceted threats.
