A highly controversial article by Israeli author Jose Lev Alvarez, published in the U.S. conservative outlet Washington Examiner, openly argues that Washington should recognize Republika Srpska as an independent state and allow Bosnia and Herzegovina to “fall apart.”
Titled “Let Bosnia Break Apart: Why Donald Trump Must Recognize an Independent Republika Srpska,” the article advances a series of claims portraying Bosnia and Herzegovina as a failed political project and presenting ethnic separation as the supposed solution to instability in the Western Balkans.
Alvarez argues that U.S. policy toward Bosnia has focused too heavily on preserving what he describes as a dysfunctional and artificial state. He claims that Washington should abandon what he calls the failed concept of multiethnic governance and instead pursue recognition of Republika Srpska.
A central argument of the article is that the Dayton Peace Agreement did not resolve Bosnia’s divisions but merely froze the wartime front lines of 1995. Alvarez claims that approximately 1.1 million predominantly Serb residents have been “trapped” inside what he calls an “artificial state.”
He further attributes Republika Srpska’s demographic decline to its lack of independence, claiming that hundreds of thousands of people have left the entity in recent years.
A controversial comparison with Kosovo
The article goes further by drawing a direct comparison between Republika Srpska and Kosovo, presenting Washington’s recognition of Kosovo in 2008 as a model that, in Alvarez’s view, could be replicated in Bosnia.
Alvarez argues that U.S. support for Pristina helped create a functioning state capable of managing its own security without triggering a wider regional conflict. He then claims that Republika Srpska possesses separate institutions, a Serb majority and strategic geographic importance, which he presents as arguments for granting it sovereignty.
The comparison is used to advance the author’s central proposition: if Washington supported Kosovo’s independence, he argues, it should apply a similar approach to Republika Srpska.
The article even proposes that an independent Republika Srpska could become a U.S. partner on a level comparable to Kosovo, Egypt and Israel.
A proposed three-step strategy
Alvarez outlines a three-part plan for Washington to pursue such a policy.
First, he calls for the U.S. State Department to adopt a parallel strategy toward Banja Luka and Pristina, including mutual recognition, joint border-security arrangements and the removal of Russian intelligence operatives.
Second, he proposes greater use of American economic influence, including restructuring Chinese-backed infrastructure debt and reducing Beijing’s economic presence in Republika Srpska.
Third, he calls for the Pentagon to establish a logistical hub in Banja Luka, arguing that such a presence would counter what he describes as hybrid threats in the region.
Warning over Dayton and regional stability
The article concludes with a direct appeal to Donald Trump to take a more aggressive approach to the Balkans and stop relying on what Alvarez describes as corrupt local intermediaries.
He argues that American power should become the foundation of Balkan security and that Washington should confront what he considers the structural failure of Bosnia’s current political system rather than continue supporting what he calls a decade of “managed paralysis.”
The article has also prompted concern because its central argument goes beyond criticism of Bosnia’s political system and openly advocates dismantling the existing constitutional and territorial framework established by the Dayton Peace Agreement.
It is not clear whether the piece represents any officially supported policy position in Washington, nor is there clear evidence that it was a paid publication connected to lobbying interests in Republika Srpska. However, the appearance of arguments advocating the breakup of Bosnia and Herzegovina in a major U.S. political publication is significant given the potential consequences for Bosnia, Kosovo and wider Western Balkan stability.
