In an interview with Radio Free Europe’s Macedonian Service, Balkan expert Edward Joseph warned that any concession to Russian President Vladimir Putin would have profound implications for the Balkans. Joseph stated that there are harmful actors in the region eagerly awaiting signals that would strengthen Putin’s position while weakening the West. He noted that the consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine would also be felt in the Balkans.
The interview delved into topics ranging from the region’s EU integration efforts, the fight against corruption in North Macedonia, and recent U.S. decisions to blacklist officials, including Artan Grubi, a former Deputy Prime Minister from the Democratic Union for Integration (BDI).
Impact of U.S. Sanctions on North Macedonia
Joseph shared his views on the U.S. State Department’s recent move to blacklist Grubi and other officials, calling it a positive step but also a sign of ongoing challenges. He praised BDI for accepting the U.S. decision, emphasizing the importance of strong ties with Washington. He stressed that these sanctions, though necessary, reflect deeper systemic issues in the country.
Joseph also addressed the fight against corruption in North Macedonia, urging the government to take more decisive action. He cited Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski’s support for U.S. measures and echoed U.S. Ambassador Angela Aggeler’s call for visible and actionable evidence in the anti-corruption battle.
EU Integration and Bulgaria’s Influence
On North Macedonia’s path to EU membership, Joseph questioned whether the dispute with Bulgaria could be resolved, noting that Bulgaria’s strong position as an EU member has made it difficult for North Macedonia to move forward. He suggested that while guarantees from the EU might help, the U.S. could play a crucial role in preventing further bilateral issues from obstructing the country’s EU aspirations.
U.S. Role in Ending the War in Ukraine
Joseph also discussed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, stating he does not expect a quick end, as promised by former U.S. President Donald Trump during his campaign. He stressed that Putin still seeks victory, despite Russia’s weakening position, which could have broader consequences for Europe, including the Balkans.
Joseph expressed concern about the security situation in the region, noting the potential for instability, particularly with ongoing tensions between Kosovo and Serbia. He warned that any Russian victory in Ukraine could embolden harmful regional actors who wish to challenge the sovereignty of countries in the Balkans.
The Future of the Ohrid Framework Agreement
Regarding recent legal challenges in North Macedonia, Joseph emphasized the importance of the Ohrid Framework Agreement, which he believes is critical to maintaining the country’s sovereignty and unity. He cautioned against any moves that could lead North Macedonia down a path similar to Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kosovo, where division has caused lasting instability.
EU Expansion and the Region’s Future
Joseph concluded by reiterating the critical role that EU expansion plays in the Balkans’ future. He argued that the EU must offer real membership prospects to countries like North Macedonia and Montenegro, despite the current challenges with Bulgaria. He highlighted the benefits of EU membership, citing Croatia’s transformation and the clear advantages it offers over neighboring countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.
