Serbia is increasingly aligning itself with a Russian–Chinese geopolitical axis against Kosovo, posing a potential threat to peace and stability in the Western Balkans, according to Arben Fetoshi, director of the Octopus Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies.
In an interview, Fetoshi said that recent statements by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić regarding Kosovo and references to the “Serbia 2030” strategy reflect a continuation of what he described as Serbia’s aggressive policy toward the country.
“Unfortunately, we are witnessing the continuation of an aggressive policy toward Kosovo. This militarized discourse from Serbia is not new and demonstrates a reinforced alignment with the revisionist Russia–China axis,” Fetoshi said.
He argued that Belgrade is attempting to gain time to advance its political ambitions, which he described as expansionist goals not only toward Kosovo but also within the broader Western Balkans, referencing the concept of the “Serbian World.”
According to the Octopus Institute, the current approach of the Euro-Atlantic community toward Serbia should shift from management to conditionality, warning that continued tolerance could allow Serbia to strengthen its position as a close ally of Russia in pursuing its regional ambitions.
“If Serbia’s ‘2030 project’ continues unchecked, it will keep maneuvering as a loyal Russian ally to realize expansionist objectives in the Balkans. This represents the largest hybrid threat to stability in the Western Balkans,” Fetoshi stated.
Concerns About Media and Political Space in Serbia
Fetoshi also raised concerns about the internal political climate in Serbia, saying there is limited space for critical voices opposing the policies of Vučić’s government.
He described the situation as an aggressive propaganda environment in which most actors operate under the influence of the ruling regime, while liberal voices struggle to find platforms to express criticism.
Calls for Stronger International Response
The Octopus Institute director stressed that clearer messages and concrete measures from the United States and the European Union are necessary.
He suggested that sanctions and other measures—similar to those taken by the U.S. through defense authorization mechanisms—should also be considered by Brussels in order to pressure Serbia to adopt a more constructive approach.
“Serbia must be encouraged to behave constructively toward the final outcome of the dialogue process, with mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia as the only sustainable solution for peace and stability in the Balkans,” Fetoshi said.
Vučić’s “Serbia 2030” Strategy
Meanwhile, President Aleksandar Vučić, while presenting the “Serbia 2030” national strategy, reiterated Serbia’s constitutional claim over Kosovo, while insisting that Belgrade seeks dialogue rather than conflict.
“The Constitution of Serbia clearly states that Kosovo is an autonomous province within Serbia. The only solution is dialogue—without conflict or war,” Vučić said.
However, analysts warn that such rhetoric and political strategies continue to fuel tensions, making the role of international actors crucial in facilitating a lasting settlement between Kosovo and Serbia.
