October 1, 2026
Serbia’s early parliamentary elections are increasingly taking on what political analyst Đorđe Vukadinović describes as a “referendum-like atmosphere,” with two major blocs emerging as the strongest contenders in a September opinion poll.
Vukadinović, a researcher at the New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM), said the survey conducted at the beginning of September showed rising support for both the student-backed electoral list “Students Win” and “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia.”
According to figures presented by Vukadinović to N1, the Student List was measured at 44.4 percent, while the Vučić-led list stood at 41.7 percent. In the previous survey, the two lists had recorded 39.6 percent and 37.5 percent, respectively.
“Two actors have reasons to be satisfied, while almost nobody else does. They are the ruling party and ‘Students Win’. They have grown and surpassed 40 percent,” Vukadinović said.
He argued that the concentration of support around the two leading blocs could make the electoral environment more difficult for smaller parties, independent opposition groups and political formations closely associated with either side.
“We are creating a referendum-like atmosphere, and this puts everyone else at risk,” Vukadinović said, referring to parties and groups seeking to compete outside the two dominant blocs.
Among those he identified as facing a more challenging environment are opposition groups running independently, including New Democratic Party of Serbia (Novi DSS) and the European Serbia coalition. He also said the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) was facing difficulties, although he described them as less pronounced.
Survey Predates Several Major Developments
Vukadinović cautioned against treating the September figures as a definitive snapshot of the electorate ahead of the October 25 vote.
The research was conducted before the collection of signatures for the electoral lists and before large numbers of citizens subsequently backed the Student List. The Republic Electoral Commission officially proclaimed the Student List – Students Win on September 15.
The commission’s records show that the Student List submitted 69,947 verified voter statements, while the Vučić-led list submitted 223,933.
Vukadinović also noted that the survey preceded the withdrawal of Serbia’s People from an independent electoral bid, internal divisions within Branimir Nestorović’s We – Force of the People movement, and developments within the Socialist Party of Serbia.
The composition of the Student List had also become clearer by the time the survey was conducted, following discussions over potential candidates. Some names reportedly considered for the list, including University of Belgrade rector Vladan Đokić and professor Milo Lompar, were ultimately not included.
“These developments can certainly affect the percentages,” Vukadinović said, emphasizing that the political landscape had continued to change since the research was carried out.
October 25 Parliamentary Election
Serbia is scheduled to hold early parliamentary elections on October 25, 2026. The Republic Electoral Commission has formally registered both the “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” list and the “Student List – Students Win” list among the contenders.
The election campaign is taking place after Aleksandar Vučić resigned as president on September 27, saying he intended to campaign as an ordinary citizen. Reuters and AP reported that his resignation opened the way for him to seek the position of prime minister following the parliamentary election.
The polling figures cited by Vukadinović should therefore be read in their specific context: they reflect a survey conducted in early September, before several subsequent political and campaign developments, rather than a current forecast of the election result.
