Pressure has increased on President Biden to reconsider his candidacy for the presidential race.
Senior Democratic Party officials, including most recently former President Barack Obama, have told Biden that his candidacy is hurting the party and reducing his chances of winning not only the November election but also control of two houses of Congress.
Biden, along with his close aides, has shown no public signs of dropping out of the race, although a growing number of reports in the US describe him as more “open” to such a possibility.
If he gives in to the pressure and withdraws, the next few days will be decisive, as the new Democratic candidate is expected to be elected.
Who will be the replacement?
Vice President Kamala Harris is the front-runner to replace Biden, with many members of the party already giving her a “vote of confidence.”
Even Biden himself during the July 11 press conference in the framework of the NATO summit said that “I would not have chosen Harris as vice president if I did not believe that she had the credentials to be president.”
But Harris’ candidacy is not considered, because she is the vice president. The Democratic Party could choose someone else to succeed Biden, perhaps a governor with increased influence and popularity within the party.
Among the names circulating in the public debate as possible candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination to replace Biden are Gavin Neesom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and J. B. Pritzker of Illinois.
How will the new candidate be chosen?
Unlike the resignation of a president, where the vice president is automatically promoted by statute to take his place, a voluntary withdrawal of Biden from the race does not result in the automatic election of Harris.
Although most Democrats and analysts see him as the most likely replacement, delegates who will be called to seal the nomination at the August convention in Chicago are free to vote for whichever candidate they prefer.
If the Democrats can’t rally around one person, then the possibility of an open convention is likely, something that has happened since 1968. And all this, of course, in the tight time frame of 100 days before the election.
In this case, behind-the-scenes wrangling is expected to be fierce, with potential candidates competing for the vote of individual delegates.
It is noted that at the last open Democratic convention, 56 years ago, the party split into two camps, between those who supported and those who opposed the war in Vietnam, with turbulent proceedings that forced the Democratic committee to return to a plan to change procedures.
How quickly can a candidate be selected?
Even if the replacement is overwhelmingly approved by Biden himself and the party, he will not be officially named unless delegates vote for him.
The Democratic National Committee has announced a virtual vote that could begin as early as the first week of August to choose its presidential candidate. Basically, this is an informal, low-profile meeting to clarify trends and informally “lock in” nominations.
If this plan does not succeed, then the candidate will be elected directly at the conference which begins on August 19.
Realistically, though, the only way Biden can be replaced at this point in the election cycle is if he resigns, dies, or has health problems.
What do the polls show?
Although Harris is widely seen as the favorite to replace Biden, recent polls show little difference in the ratings of the two compared to Trump’s.
Specifically, according to the average of 11 Washington Post polls after the June debate, Trump leads Biden by 1.9 points, while Harris leads by 1.5 points.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll this month found that 44 percent of Americans overall said they would be “pleased” if Biden withdrew and Harris became the Democratic nominee.
In the same poll, 29% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favored Harris as the nominee if Biden withdraws, while 7% favored the nomination of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), 4% for former First Lady Michelle Obama; % for Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D).
Half of the Democrats did not mention any names.
What will happen to the money that Biden has collected?
Already, some of the party’s powerful financiers appeared extremely concerned about Biden’s physical and mental condition, as well as the opening of the vote in favor of Donald Trump.
If Biden withdraws from the race, his campaign money is considered “excess campaign capital” that can be attributed to the Democratic National Committee or an independent expenditure committee.
Several attorneys and Democratic officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, argue that because Harris’ name is included in documents filed with the Federal Election Commission, Biden could give her control of the account if she leaves.
However, as Republican campaign finance lawyers argue, this legal version has not been tested. According to Charlie Spies, both Biden and Harris will have to be officially endorsed by their party to “unlock” the donations.
If the Democratic Party chooses a candidate other than Harris, the Biden campaign could shift its money to the Democratic Party.
