A new analysis warns that Serbia could be repeating a strategic mistake similar to the one made in 2008, as the future ownership of Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) appears set to shift from Russian control to a consortium led by MOL Group and partners from the United Arab Emirates.
According to the commentary by entrepreneur Petar Gonja, instead of taking back control of its national oil company, the state may allow the majority stake held by Gazprom Neft to be transferred to foreign investors. The deal is expected to be finalized by the end of March, pending approvals from regulatory authorities and an intergovernmental agreement between Serbia and Hungary supporting MOL’s entry into the Serbian energy market.
The proposed transaction comes amid strong geopolitical and economic pressures related to sanctions, energy security, and shifting international alliances. The license granted by the U.S. Treasury’s sanctions authority allows operations to continue until March 20, creating a limited window for completing the restructuring of ownership. Analysts note that the move could also eliminate secondary sanctions tied to Russian ownership if the transfer is approved.
Russian officials have framed the sale not as a withdrawal, but as a strategic reorganization of Moscow’s presence in the Balkans. However, critics argue that the arrangement could weaken Serbia’s control over a key strategic asset and deepen dependence on external energy actors. Concerns remain that despite promises of supply stability, the change in ownership may not guarantee long-term energy security.
Another key issue highlighted in the analysis is the growing influence of Hungarian companies in Serbia’s energy sector, with investments expanding in recent years. If MOL acquires NIS, it could significantly strengthen its position across Central and Southeastern Europe, potentially affecting fuel pricing, supply chains, and regional market dynamics.
Observers also point to the experience of Croatia’s national oil company INA, where MOL gradually increased its control and management influence. That partnership later led to political disputes, arbitration cases, and long-term tensions, making it a frequently cited cautionary example in regional energy negotiations.
The broader geopolitical environment continues to shape the negotiations. Sanctions on Russian energy, supply disruptions, and EU regulatory scrutiny are all factors that could influence the final outcome. European institutions are expected to closely examine the deal, particularly regarding competition risks and potential market dominance.
Ultimately, the debate centers on whether Serbia should regain direct control over NIS during a period of global energy uncertainty, or allow the restructuring led by foreign partners to proceed. Critics emphasize that Serbia still has options to remove Russian ownership independently, while supporters argue that the deal could provide immediate stability in fuel supply.
The outcome of these negotiations could reshape Serbia’s energy sector for years to come, determining who controls one of the country’s most strategic companies and how the regional oil market evolves amid global geopolitical tensions.
