The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (63) has caused significant concern in Russia. Raisi was a close ally of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin (71). Iran supplies the Russian military with combat drones and supports the war of aggression against Ukraine. Now, Russian military experts fear for the stability of the Iranian regime and speak of an “extraordinary loss” for Moscow, with unpredictable consequences. Military observers from the group “Rybar,” which is close to the Russian army, warn on Telegram of “internal political changes in Iran” following Raisi’s death. His death is expected to “change the situation within Iran itself.”
Contrary to Kremlin propaganda, which portrays Raisi as a beloved leader, the bloggers of “Rybar” have no illusions: “The late president was a very controversial figure among Iranians.”
This development could become dangerous for both the regime and Russia.
Many Iranians “have no respect” for Raisi, according to the Russians. This could lead to a new wave of protests. They recall the “ongoing unrest” after the death of Jina Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman killed by regime mercenaries. There remains a significant potential for mass protests if discontented Iranians seize the opportunity. “Low wages, low pensions due to rising inflation – all of these are blamed on Raisi’s government,” states the Russian analysis. Consequently, some Iranians are openly celebrating the death of the mullah president.
“An Extraordinary Loss”
The Kremlin-loyal bloggers of the group “Schiwow Z” are even more explicit: “For Russian geopolitics, Raisi’s death is an extraordinary loss.” They fear the “risk of an internal balance disruption” in Iran. “Moreover, the internal situation in Iran has long been far from ideal.”
Fragile: Although the Russian group considers the Iranian regime stable, it attaches great importance to Raisi’s death for Moscow.
A Terrorist Ally
The mullah “was among the first to extend a hand to Russia during its most challenging time in 2022.” Under Raisi, Iran “was always clear and unwavering (…) in its military and technical support for Russia.” Putin’s condolences were particularly emotional. “As a true friend of Russia, he made a valuable personal contribution to developing neighborly relations between our countries and made great efforts to elevate them to the level of a strategic partnership,” the Russian dictator explained his connection with Raisi. Clearly, the mullah dictatorship is one of the Kremlin’s closest – and few – allies. If Raisi’s death leads to a weakening of the Iranian regime, it would be a severe blow to Russia.
