The Western Balkans are heading into a politically tense autumn, with Kosovo facing a political deadlock, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina preparing for elections, while the region remains caught between the interests of NATO, the European Union and Russia, Rks News reports.
This is how the Croatian media outlet Jutarnji list begins its analysis, assessing that KFOR continues to be one of the key factors in maintaining stability in Kosovo and, consequently, throughout the region.
The Croatian outlet recalls statements made in April, when, following a meeting in Zagreb focused on trilateral Croatia-Albania-Kosovo cooperation, the importance of KFOR and Kosovo’s stability for regional peace was emphasized.
In June, according to the article, Brussels announced that NATO would gradually adjust KFOR’s presence over the following year, taking into account the stable security situation. However, Jutarnji writes that tensions subsequently emerged again.
In this context, the outlet refers to the announced reduction of KFOR’s presence at the main bridge over the Ibër River in Mitrovica, an issue that has triggered reactions in Serbia. It also mentions the demolition of structures in the area of Lake Gazivoda and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s statements about the possibility of changing the course of the Ibër River.
The Croatian media outlet also links this rhetoric to the fact that Vučić has already entered the election campaign.
Jutarnji on Kosovo’s Political Crisis
A significant part of the analysis focuses on political developments in Kosovo.
The Croatian outlet writes that the country has been experiencing a political crisis for around 18 months, referring to the February 2025 elections, those held in December, and the June 7 elections, while highlighting the continuing problems with the formation of state institutions.
The article also quotes Azem Vllasi, who, commenting on Albin Kurti’s approach to power, said that Kurti “wants to dominate power because he receives the most votes in elections.”
New elections were held in December, with Kurti winning a majority, but the authorities have still failed to elect a new president, a process requiring 80 votes. The third elections in sixteen months were held on June 7. Yet nothing has been resolved: Parliament has again failed to establish leadership, and a fourth election in less than two years is now at risk.
The Croatian outlet describes Kosovo’s political paralysis as damaging to the country’s international image, attributing it to what it characterizes as Kurti’s political stubbornness.
Nevertheless, according to the analysis, another election in Kosovo is not expected to have a major impact on regional stability because “KFOR guarantees peace.”
Vučić Ahead of the Elections and a Warning of a Dangerous Scenario
Particular attention is given to Serbia’s parliamentary elections, reportedly scheduled for October 18 or 25.
According to Jutarnji, Vučić has already mobilized the institutional and media machinery to secure a victory for the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), while he is expected to appear on its electoral list.
The analysis warns of a potentially dangerous situation if both the government and opposition declare victory after the election and the opposition claims that the result was manipulated.
According to the author, in such a scenario, the possibility cannot be ruled out that Vučić could accuse his opponents of failing to respect democratic standards and use force to prevent protests. For this reason, Jutarnji considers the presence of international observers, particularly from the EU, especially important.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Faces a Major Test
The elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are another important focus of the analysis. Jutarnji expects intense political battles among all three constituent communities.
The Serb opposition is seeking to remove Milorad Dodik’s SNSD from power, while the SDA is seeking a return to central government. At the same time, Croatian parties hope that this time they will succeed in electing the candidate they consider to be the legitimate Croatian representative in the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Russia Seeks to Preserve Its Influence in Belgrade and Banja Luka
The analysis also examines the competing interests of major powers in the Balkans.
According to Jutarnji, Russia seeks to preserve its influence in Belgrade and Banja Luka, while China views Serbia as a platform for strengthening its presence. The United States, meanwhile, has placed the stability of the Western Balkans and the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina among its key regional priorities.
The analysis also highlights the region’s dependence on Russian energy, which, according to a U.S. State Department document cited by Jutarnji, remains a strategic vulnerability.
Unlike Kosovo, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Croatian outlet assesses that the situation in Montenegro has stabilized considerably, partly attributing this to the country’s NATO membership and its prospects for EU integration.
In conclusion, Jutarnji list presents the autumn of 2026 as an important period for the Western Balkans: Kosovo faces institutional deadlock, Serbia potentially tense elections, Bosnia and Herzegovina intense political confrontation, while NATO, the EU, the United States and Russia continue to hold direct interests in the stability and strategic direction of the region.
