The traditional holiday cheer at European embassies in Washington has been notably subdued this Christmas, as diplomats grapple with growing uncertainty over the future of the transatlantic alliance under President Donald Trump’s second administration.
At a series of Christmas receptions held along Washington’s famed Embassy Row this week, European envoys privately expressed deep unease about the direction of U.S. foreign policy, describing a relationship that many fear may never fully recover.
A Chilling Shift in U.S.–Europe Relations
From the newly released U.S. National Security Strategy, which former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell labeled “a declaration of political war”, to President Trump’s openly dismissive rhetoric toward Europe, diplomats say the signals from Washington have been unmistakably hostile.
“The Western alliance is over. The relationship will never be the same again,” one envoy from a mid-sized European country told POLITICO, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The reluctance to speak publicly is widespread. Diplomats cited fears of retaliation from the Trump administration, pointing to the recent resignation of Belgium’s defense attaché, who stepped down after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth took offense at remarks describing the administration as chaotic and unpredictable.
Silence, Anxiety, and Diplomatic Disorientation
Despite the caution, a broad consensus has emerged within Europe’s diplomatic community: Trump increasingly views Europe less as a partner and more as a rival. Borrell has urged EU leaders to abandon what he calls “complacent silence”, warning that continued passivity risks further marginalization.
Analysts describe the prevailing mood among diplomats as “psychosocial disorientation”—a deep uncertainty caused by Washington’s decisive break with the post-1945 international order established under President Harry Truman and upheld by successive U.S. administrations until now.
Some envoys continue to hope that Trump’s presidency represents a temporary disruption.
“It will all go back to normal in two years when there’s a new president,” one deputy head of mission from southeastern Europe said confidently.
Others are less optimistic, acknowledging that Trump’s criticism of Europe as stagnant and declining echoes warnings from figures like former ECB President Mario Draghi, but questioning whether Trump’s motives align with Europe’s long-term interests.
From Values-Based Diplomacy to Transactional Power Politics
Diplomats were particularly alarmed by the Trump administration’s explicit rejection of values-based foreign policy. The new U.S. strategy emphasizes acting solely on “what works for America,” signaling a willingness to cooperate with authoritarian regimes while downplaying democracy promotion.
This shift was reinforced earlier this year by Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he warned that Europe’s security guarantees could depend on its willingness to embrace MAGA-style nationalist populism.
Many European officials still hope the administration’s rhetoric may soften. Yet, privately, few are convinced.
Exceptions to the Gloom
Not all embassies reflected the prevailing anxiety. Germany’s embassy embraced the cold with an outdoor Christmas market, symbolically projecting resilience. German officials reiterated their firm commitment to Ukraine, despite shifting U.S. priorities.
Meanwhile, Qatar, buoyed by improving ties with Washington, hosted a lavish National Day celebration attended by senior Trump administration officials—an event marked by optimism, abundant food, and conspicuous confidence.
“We’re happy,” a Qatari diplomat said simply.
An Alliance at a Crossroads
As Europe’s diplomats toast the season with measured smiles and guarded conversations, one reality dominates: the transatlantic relationship is undergoing its most profound test in decades. Whether this rupture becomes permanent or forces Europe into long-overdue strategic independence remains an open—and deeply unsettling—question.
