EUISS analysis: Vigilance in the North – The West must engage, otherwise there is a risk of escalation

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The European Union’s Institute for Security Studies has published an analysis about the path that Kosovo is following in relation to dialogue and relations with allies and have also given some recommendations.

As written in the last part of this publication, while the global elections are approaching and the war in Ukraine continues, the stabilization of the security situation in Kosovo and the Western Balkans is vital. In this article it is said that seeing the challenges the region is facing, during this period it is very important to keep a watchful eye on possible escalation points, especially in the north of Kosovo.

The publication suggests the need for the West to have a sustained diplomatic engagement with Pristina and Belgrade during the second half of 2024, as the risk of security escalation is high.

In writing, they recommend that the Government of Kosovo urgently adopt a positive agenda for the Serbs living in Kosovo, including steps to establish the Association and to restore trust by addressing their legitimate concerns.

“After the failure of the referendum for the removal of the mayors of the municipalities in the north, Kosovo must resume the dialogue with the EU on the conditions for the removal of the imposed measures”, the report states.

The EUISS has also given some recommendations in the long term:

Diplomatic engagement: The EU should intensify diplomatic efforts with the 5 EU member states that have refused to recognize Kosovo’s independence, especially as the 27 EU member states jointly sponsored the ‘Ohrid Agreement’ which requires Kosovo’s membership in international organizations. After fully harmonizing its position with the QUINT countries (9), Kosovo should cooperate with them to initiate a dialogue with the five non-recognizing EU states for EU and NATO membership. Kosovo should also push for the opening of mutual liaison offices in the capitals where such a presence is currently lacking.

Building bridges: Kosovo has a lot to lose if it insists on rejecting EU recommendations and demands. It will benefit greatly by making efforts to improve relations with local Serbs and by exploring new avenues to facilitate the election of new mayors and municipal councilors in its northern municipalities, honoring its commitments and re-engaging in good faith in The EU made easy. The dialogue. Finally, lifting Kosovo’s veto on regional agreements would remove a major obstacle to enhanced regional cooperation in the Western Balkans and help foster socio-economic cooperation within the region.

EU conditionality, red lines and membership: Once the new College of Commissioners is established, the EU should adopt a strong political strategy to foster continued cooperation between Kosovo and Serbia. There is no other possible alternative to the Dialogue. This could include the implementation of stricter conditions for compliance with the Brussels/Ohrid provisions on both sides, and the clear definition of red lines that cannot be crossed, including a clear timeframe for EU membership to both countries.

Security preparedness and deterrence: NATO can further support Kosovo’s security structures by developing their capabilities to respond effectively to emergency situations. This could include increasing training exercises and joint operational planning, as well as strengthening the KSF’s defensive capabilities, particularly in response to security challenges in the north, such as the attack in Banjska. In the long term, this will serve to further improve KSF’s interaction with NATO standards, potentially paving the way for Kosovo’s eventual inclusion in the PfP framework.

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