From November 1, 2027, the European Union will no longer be able to import natural gas from Russia, and the European Commission is preparing legislation to ban Russian oil imports by the end of that year. This raises significant questions for EU candidate countries like Serbia, which remains heavily dependent on Russian gas and holds a majority Russian stake in NIS.
The geopolitical and economic landscape in Europe has fundamentally shifted since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Russia continues to pose a long-term security threat to the EU and NATO, prompting accelerated military preparedness. Consequently, the EU has concluded that continuing to import Russian energy would be irresponsible and would fund Russia’s war machine, leading to the proposal for a gradual phase-out of Russian gas imports, beginning April 2026, with a full ban by November 2027.
Serbia’s Position and Challenges
While Serbia is not an EU member, it must prepare for a scenario in which it cannot rely on Russian gas. The country is the only EU candidate, alongside Turkey, that has not joined EU sanctions against Russia, leaving it particularly exposed. President Vučić has emphasized that Serbia will resist sanctions as long as possible, despite the potential economic consequences.
Negotiations over Russia’s stake in NIS are ongoing, and if these talks fail, Belgrade may be forced to secure alternative energy sources this winter. Previously, Serbia signed a short-term gas agreement with Russia valid until spring 2026, but plans to diversify supply are now urgent.
Energy Infrastructure and Diversification
Thanks to EU pressure and financial support, Serbia has recently completed a gas interconnector with Bulgaria, which could be crucial in mitigating potential supply disruptions. Moreover, Serbia is gradually reducing its dependence on Russian energy, although plans to import Russian oil via Hungary remain complicated due to EU sanctions, which restrict oil re-export from Slovakia and Hungary.
The legacy of past agreements also impacts Serbia’s options. Russia previously held majority ownership of the South Stream pipeline through Serbia, limiting Serbia’s energy sovereignty. EU-backed reforms, including adherence to the II and III energy packages, now allow non-Russian gas to flow through the Balkan Stream, reducing Russia’s monopoly in Southeast Europe.
Outlook
Despite these efforts, Serbia faces a pressing challenge this winter: ensuring a stable gas supply independently of Russia. While the European gas market operates efficiently, infrastructure constraints and geopolitical restrictions complicate energy imports, leaving Serbia in a vulnerable but gradually improving position.
