Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) leader Ivica Dačić’s announcement that his party could contest upcoming elections independently has raised questions over whether he is genuinely preparing to break away from President Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling political bloc or simply attempting to improve his bargaining position.
According to an analysis published by Serbian outlet Radar, Dačić’s recent moves reflect a combination of political ambition and concern over his own political future, with sources suggesting that his long-standing relationship with Vučić remains defined by a significant imbalance of power.
Although Dačić’s suggestion that the SPS could run independently triggered criticism in pro-government media, it remains unclear whether the move represents a genuine political break or pre-election maneuvering.
Radar cited sources within the SPS who said that Dačić still refers to Vučić as “the boss” in conversations with party colleagues, a term he previously used for former Serbian President Slobodan Milošević.
The apparent challenge to Vučić has also been followed by more conciliatory statements from Dačić, adding to speculation that the Socialist leader may ultimately remain within the ruling political arrangement.
A party that follows the balance of power
The SPS has spent most of the past three decades in government and has historically demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to changing political circumstances.
However, Radar argues that the party now faces a particularly difficult moment. Its political base has weakened, while remaining in coalition with Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) could further damage the SPS’s identity and electoral prospects.
At the same time, the party includes figures such as former minister Branko Ružić, who has publicly taken positions that have occasionally placed him at odds with the SNS and its supporters.
Sources cited by Radar suggest that Dačić’s decision to consider an independent election campaign may also be linked to a long-standing personal ambition: seeking the Serbian presidency, described in the report as the last major political position missing from his career.
The SPS recently held a ceremonial meeting of its Main Board, where local party organizations were instructed to propose candidates for future elections. The party also decided that it would contest the upcoming elections independently.
Independent campaign or bargaining strategy?
Political analyst Dragomir Anđelković told Radar that the SPS leadership has historically prioritized securing political positions for itself, often at the expense of broader party interests.
He argued that Dačić had repeatedly accepted pressure from the SNS rather than confront Vučić directly.
Anđelković claimed that Dačić may now see an opportunity to strengthen his negotiating position as the SNS faces declining support and the student movement emerges as a significant political challenge to the ruling establishment.
According to the analyst, an independent SPS campaign could potentially give Dačić two advantages: allowing the Socialists to position themselves as a potential kingmaker in future coalition negotiations and increasing pressure on the SNS to offer the party more favorable terms.
“If the SNS is seriously weakening and the student movement represents a genuine danger to the regime, Dačić has an opportunity to revitalize the SPS,” Anđelković argued.
However, he questioned whether Dačić would be willing to sustain a serious confrontation with Vučić.
Anđelković described the Socialists’ current strategy as an attempt at political bargaining and predicted that Dačić could ultimately retreat and accept Vučić’s demands rather than risk a direct conflict.
Political survival and the presidential ambition
Despite its decline, the SPS is still believed to have the potential to pass Serbia’s three-percent electoral threshold.
But analysts cited by Radar argue that the significance of an independent campaign goes beyond the party’s own electoral survival.
If the SPS genuinely enters elections independently, it could potentially become an important factor in post-election coalition negotiations — particularly if neither the government nor its opponents secure a decisive majority.
The SPS has previously demonstrated a willingness to shift alliances.
Dačić famously played a decisive role in Serbia’s political realignment after the 2012 elections, when the SPS ultimately joined forces with the SNS rather than forming a government with the Democratic Party-led bloc.
That history has fueled speculation that the Socialists could once again seek to position themselves as a decisive political partner if Serbia enters a period of greater political uncertainty.
The report also raises the possibility that Dačić could eventually seek political survival by stepping aside as SPS leader in exchange for assurances regarding his future.
Sources within the party told Radar that, despite concerns about his health and his long political career, Dačić’s political ambitions remain a central priority.
Can Dačić escape Vučić’s political orbit?
The central question is whether Dačić is genuinely prepared to challenge Vučić or whether the talk of an independent SPS campaign is primarily intended to extract better political terms.
The relationship between the two leaders has become increasingly unequal over the years, with the SNS expanding its influence while the SPS has lost political space and part of its traditional electorate.
According to Radar’s analysis, Dačić is therefore caught between two competing pressures: the ambition to secure one final major political achievement and the risks associated with openly confronting the dominant partner in Serbia’s ruling coalition.
Whether the SPS leader can sustain an independent political course remains uncertain.
For now, his announcement has opened the possibility of a new political calculation in Serbia. But it has also exposed the central dilemma facing Dačić: whether he is prepared to risk a confrontation with Vučić in pursuit of greater political independence — or whether, as has often happened in Serbian politics, the threat of separation will ultimately become another round of bargaining within the existing system.
