In a reality filled with strong and varied security challenges, Kosovo’s leadership would do well to maintain partnerships and strengthen ties with strategic allies, especially the United States and NATO countries, says security expert Adrian Shtuni.
“As seen in the case of Israel, partnerships and coalitions are vital for defending the country,” says the researcher on radicalization and violent extremism based in Washington.
Speaking to Radio Free Europe, Shtuni refers to Israel’s response to the missile and drone attack by Iran and its allies on the night of April 13-14.
Shtuni says this “unprecedented” confrontation made the situation in the Middle East even “more unpredictable” and does not rule out the possibility that it may have implications for the Western Balkans.
“The region is going through a troubled situation. There is political and social polarization. There have also been direct attacks, including military-level armaments,” says Shtuni, mentioning the case of Bajnska.
In this village in northern Kosovo last September, armed Serb groups attacked Kosovo police, killing one officer.
Kosovo blamed Serbia’s state apparatus for the attack. The US also said it was investigating Serbia’s state links to it.
While Serbia distanced itself, responsibility was taken by former Kosovo Serb politician Milan Radoičić, who is still free and suspected to be in Serbia.
“As long as the Serbian authorities – who have on their territory all the figures involved in that attack – do not act, not only to arrest the perpetrators, but also to hold accountable the planners and financiers of the attack, there is a risk that the same individuals will carry out the same acts,” says Shtuni.
Furthermore, he adds, “there may also be individuals who were not involved in the Bajnska attack, and if there is no punishment or accountability, they may get the message that ‘it’s okay to do the same thing.'”
Shtuni says there is “room for increased vigilance from the international community,” but also “for the maintenance and strengthening of important partnerships and alliances” of Kosovo, especially with the United States and NATO.
Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti has long repeated that Serbia poses a threat to Kosovo’s security. A survey released this week by the International Republican Institute in the US highlighted that “for half of the citizens of the Balkans, the greatest risk is Serbia.”
But, between Kurti and international allies, there have been some recent disagreements – especially over the issue of using the Serbian dinar in Kosovo – which have led to some warnings that Kurti is jeopardizing relations with allies, even though he insists otherwise.
After the Iran attack in Israel, Kurti convened Kosovo’s Security Council for a meeting, where, he said, the possible implications of developments in the Middle East on global and regional peace and security were discussed.
Kurti’s office said the drones used by Iran against Israel are also possessed by Serbia, although the Serbian Ministry of Defense denied having Shahed drones in a statement to Radio Free Europe.
However, Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, also draws attention to the risk of a wider regional conflict, with possible global implications.
“We are reaching a point where gloves are coming off,” he tells Radio Free Europe.
“It’s a state-to-state conflict – between Iran and Israel – and this implies a new era,” adds Vatanka.
Tensions between Israel and Iran have been high for years and often marked by a shadow war – whether through air, sea, land, or cyber attacks.
They escalated after the outbreak of war in Gaza last October. Israel launched a fierce bombing campaign there after Hamas – a group declared a terrorist by the US and others, which controls Gaza – first attacked Israel.
Militant groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, backed by Iran, constantly attack Israeli territory, while Israel carries out strikes against Iranian figures in the region.
Vatanka says a full-scale conventional war would be devastating for both sides and highly destabilizing for the world.
While Israel’s Defense Force ranks among the world’s most powerful armies, Vatanka says Iran has “the largest arsenal of drones and missiles in the Middle East.”
“There are also thousands of pro-Iranian militias in countries like Syria, Lebanon, and even in the region. So, Iran is not empty-handed,” says Vatanka.
The impact of this confrontation on distant countries, according to him, for now may be more economic, or from the blockade of ships in the Red Sea.
For months, Houthi rebels have been disrupting maritime transport in the Suez Canal, which is the fastest maritime route between Asia and Europe and through which about 15 percent of global maritime trade passes.
Radio Free Europe reported in January that this crisis also affected Kosovo, raising prices for some products.
Shtuni says that in such a situation, it is important to increase defensive capacities within Kosovo.
“The concern arises when you see that certain circles within certain countries tend to take advantage of such security situations in the world to undertake destabilizing actions,” says Shtuni, taking Serbia as an example.
For security in Kosovo, in addition to local institutions, the NATO peacekeeping mission, KFOR, is also responsible.
Last week, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, blamed Russia for ethnic tension in the Balkans and said Serbia was suspected of being involved in these influence operations.
He said he had authorized the deployment of more NATO troops to Kosovo, as well as to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This week, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved a bill aimed at increased US engagement in the Western Balkans, while US House Speaker Mike Johnson, speaking in support of aid to Ukraine, said if Putin is allowed, he “could go to the Balkans.”
Shtuni also emphasizes the importance of a normalization agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, saying that “the attention and capacities of key countries that guarantee security are under pressure when there are so many fireplaces to be extinguished by a limited number of firefighters.”
Source: Botasot.net
