As regional tensions flare between Belgrade and Podgorica, domestic analysts argue that the dramatic interception of 80+ Serbian nationals in Montenegro reveals systemic incompetence and political desperation within the Vučić administration rather than a calculated plot.
The dramatic diplomatic fallout over the “Tivat Airport Incident”—where Montenegrin border authorities summarily barred and deported a charter flight of 87 Serbian nationals linked to organized crime—has sparked an intense debate in the Balkans.
The core question preoccupying regional political analysts is simple: Was this a calculated, hybrid intimidation campaign orchestrated by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, or was it a display of absolute institutional hubris and incompetence?
Following the incident, the political blowback has intensified rapidly. Vučić angrily told Podgorica that he required “neither a welcome nor a send-off” at the EU-Western Balkans Summit, while Serbia’s Security Intelligence Agency (BIA) issued a rare public communique claiming the President’s life was actively endangered in Montenegro.
The immediate domestic fallout is already being felt by regular citizens, with Serbian border authorities instituting unannounced, retaliatory “security screenings” targeting Montenegrin travelers, causing hours-long delays at border checkpoints.
Shift Media Focus from Podgorica’s EU Success
According to Bojana Selaković, Coordinator of the National Convention on the EU (NCEU), the open nature of the operation makes a sophisticated covert plot highly unlikely.
“It is difficult to believe that anyone genuinely planning a covert or hybrid operation would organize travel in such an conspicuous, easily verifiable manner, using a charter flight with this specific group of individuals,” Selaković told Danas.
However, Selaković points out that the operation’s failure has placed Vučić in an uncomfortable corner. The public exposure of the passenger manifest—which independent watchdog CRTA revealed included eight individuals directly tied to ruling-party tracking teams during Serbia’s controversial March 29 local elections—has made it impossible for the presidency to deny knowledge of the flight.
Instead, Selaković suggests the entire security drama may have been generated to serve as a media smokescreen.
“The incident occurred precisely when European attention was fixed on Montenegro’s rapid, visible progress toward EU membership,” Selaković noted. “Creating a security crisis effectively shifts the media focus away from themes that are politically embarrassing for Belgrade—namely, that Montenegro is poised to be the next EU member state, while Serbia is visibly lagging behind.”
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ The Tivat Aftermath: Coordinated State Fallback │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ • The Escalation: BIA issues an emergency security alert for Vučić. │
│ • The Retaliation: Border police initiate grueling, hours-long customs │
│ checks on all Montenegrin citizens entering Serbia. │
│ • The Objective: Re-anchoring Vučić's nationalist voter base ahead of │
│ the impending November congressional elections. │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
A Systemic Culture of Incompetence
Other social and political observers reject the idea of a sophisticated conspiracy altogether, viewing the incident as a structural failure of negative selection within the Serbian state apparatus.
Dragan Popadić, a professor of social psychology at the University of Belgrade, argued that the Tivat operation bears striking similarities to the disastrous 2023 Banjska paramilitary clash in northern Kosovo. He views both events not as acts of hidden genius, but as structural failures driven by institutional loyalty overriding basic competence.
“The problem is not a particularly clever political script, but rather the profound irresponsibility of individuals who have been elevated to decision-making positions that far exceed their professional capabilities,” Popadić explained. “To execute an action like this requires a chain of absolute obedience running through various state institutions. This points to a serious collapse of the state framework itself.”
Popadić characterized Belgrade’s immediate imposition of border restrictions on Montenegrin citizens as an impulsive reaction driven by “wounded vanity” rather than strategic statecraft.
‘Arrogance and Idiocy’
Goran Ješić, the founder of the “Solidarnost” (Solidarity) Civic Movement, was even more direct, dismissing local tendencies to view every government blunder as a complex, multi-layered conspiracy.
“Balkans citizens, especially Serbs, are highly prone to conspiracy theories. But to have a conspiracy theory, you must first have serious intellectuals and serious strategists with formal education and vast professional experience inventing these plots,” Ješić stated cuttingly.
Ješić concluded that the Tivat incident is simply the natural byproduct of an administration accustomed to treating sovereign neighbors as domestic territory.
“What we perceive as a calculated smokescreen is usually just the result of absolute arrogance and idiocy,” Ješić concluded. “Vučić has used this exact playbook before—most notably during his provocative appearance in Srebrenica years ago. He is relying on his tabloids to hyper-inflate the narrative of his martyrdom, but the reality is that the plan failed because it was deeply foolish.”
