German daily Frankfurter Rundschau reports that Aleksandar Vučić has repeatedly used well-known methods to maintain power and manipulate elections in his favor, while the timing of elections may also play a crucial role.
According to the report, as Vučić approaches the end of his second and final presidential term, he is seeking ways to remain in power—potentially by returning to the position of prime minister. However, recent local elections have shown significant losses for his party, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
“Vučić must fear for his re-election prospects and for the votes of his SNS. The example he fears is the defeat of his ally Viktor Orbán in Hungary,” the newspaper writes.
The report alleges that Vučić has used a wide range of tactics to secure his position, including vote-buying, voter intimidation, falsified electoral lists, organized “tourist voters,” and pre-filled ballot boxes. It also mentions the use of hired groups to intimidate voters.
However, the paper emphasizes that not only direct manipulation but also the timing of elections can significantly influence outcomes.
Citing Dnevnik, the report notes that the ruling SNS has already secured a substantial number of votes through its influence over the public administration. Still, high voter turnout could reduce the impact of such votes, while low turnout—especially during the summer holidays—could amplify their effect.
The article suggests that during summer, opposition-leaning voters may be away on vacation, making protests easier to disperse in a quieter Belgrade. At the same time, it remains uncertain whether traditional government supporters would also participate or potentially boycott the elections.
Referencing a question raised by the Belgrade weekly NIN whether this is a “blitzkrieg” or a “bluff” the report concludes that it is unclear whether Vučić truly intends to call early elections or is using the idea to distract from other issues.
