Former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has warned that political developments in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo could interact in ways that increase instability across the Western Balkans, arguing that European leaders should pay closer attention to the region.
Writing for Radar, Bildt said that “gloomy politics” were once again affecting the Balkans, pointing to renewed nationalist tensions, deteriorating relations between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and stalled European Union integration processes.
He cited the recent semi-official funeral in Belgrade for convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić as one development that, in his assessment, has revived wartime traumas and nationalist tensions, particularly given Mladić’s continued standing among some Bosnian Serbs.
Bildt also argued that the United States and Europe are no longer as closely aligned on Bosnia and Herzegovina as they were in previous years. He said the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has shown limited interest in the region’s complex political processes and has instead focused on more narrowly defined economic interests.
“Each country in the region is going through its own political processes, but the risk of them spilling over into one another and having a negative impact is considerable,” Bildt wrote.
He pointed to a proposed gas pipeline linking Croatia’s coast with Sarajevo as an example of how economic and geopolitical interests can intersect. While such a project could potentially reduce the region’s dependence on Russian gas, Bildt raised concerns about the circumstances under which the project was reportedly awarded to a previously little-known company whose executives were described as having personal connections to Trump.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bildt said October’s elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina could have significant consequences for the country’s political and constitutional system.
According to his analysis, the election outcome could potentially create conditions for cooperation between hardline Serbian and Croatian nationalist forces aimed at changing aspects of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitutional framework.
Bildt warned that such a development could be perceived as a threat by the Bosniak community and could contribute to a cycle of political confrontation and instability.
He argued that the timing could be particularly significant given what he described as Washington’s reduced engagement with Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Serbia and Kosovo
Bildt also highlighted the political situation in Serbia, where he said the authorities are facing a broad grassroots movement following prolonged student protests.
He noted that the movement has now organized around the Students’ List and argued that the uncertainty surrounding Serbia’s elections creates the possibility of a scenario in which President Aleksandar Vučić’s government declares victory despite a contested outcome.
In Bildt’s assessment, such a development could further increase political instability.
He also pointed to Kosovo, where he said normalization between Belgrade and Prishtina has stalled. According to Bildt, unresolved issues in divided Mitrovica and broader political difficulties in Kosovo are adding to the region’s uncertainty.
He further argued that the recent verdict against former Kosovo President and former KLA leader Hashim Thaçi by the Kosovo Specialist Chambers has contributed to Kosovo’s strained relationship with some international partners.
EU Integration Losing Momentum
Bildt said the developments should not be viewed separately, arguing that their combined effect could create what he described as a “critical mass” of nationalist sentiment.
He recalled that the peace-building strategy developed over the past quarter-century was based in part on the expectation that EU accession negotiations and reconciliation efforts supported by international tribunals would gradually promote stability and cooperation across the region.
In his view, that expectation has not been fulfilled.
With the possible exceptions of Montenegro and Albania, Bildt argued, the EU integration process has lost much of its previous momentum as a motivating force. He also criticized the length of international judicial processes in The Hague, arguing that their prolonged nature has limited their potential contribution to reconciliation.
Montenegro, he said, remains on a relatively promising path toward EU membership, but warned that even its progress could be affected by a new regional crisis.
Bildt argued that if Serbia were to seek to destabilize a neighboring country, it could potentially do so with consequences extending beyond bilateral relations.
“Even limited clashes could be enough to push the entire region onto a more uncertain and dangerous path,” Bildt wrote, calling on political leaders, particularly European leaders, to respond to what he described as warning signs.
He stressed that this did not necessarily mean the Balkans were heading toward a new cycle of wars. However, he argued that even relatively limited confrontations could increase uncertainty and insecurity across the region.
Bildt concluded that with the United States focused on its economic interests and the EU preoccupied with Russia’s war against Ukraine and uncertainty in transatlantic relations, prospects for a coordinated international policy aimed at restoring stability, building trust and supporting integration remain difficult.
