Democrats could win the House of Representatives popular vote by a margin of 13 to 14 percentage points, marking the largest midterm election advantage for either party since 1974.
At the time, Republicans suffered major losses in the shadow of the Watergate scandal. The projected 13–14-point Democratic lead comes from analyst G. Elliott Morris, while Yahoo News is also forecasting a 13-point advantage for Democrats. By comparison, Republicans secured a 6.8-point popular vote margin during their major victories in 1994 and 2010.
According to Time magazine, Democrats have secured control of both chambers of Congress — a feat achieved only five times in midterm elections since the Second World War. The most recent occasions were in 1994 and 2006.
A Larger Majority Than in 2008
Projections suggest Democrats could hold around 255 seats in the House of Representatives, giving them their largest majority since 2008 — and possibly since 1992. Since the Second World War, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats in midterm elections. This time, Republicans could lose more than 40.
However, the largest gain in recent history remains the Republicans’ 2010 result, when they picked up 63 seats. In 1994, they gained 54 seats, while Democrats gained 41 in 2018.
Senate Shifts Not Seen Since 1980
Following these elections, at least 17 senators will be replaced — the largest turnover since 1980. The last time more than two Senate seats changed party control in midterm elections in states where the president had won by a double-digit margin two years earlier was in 1986.
This time, Democrats secured victories in Kansas for the first time since the 1930s and in Texas for the first time since 1988.
Democrats now also hold 28 of the country’s 50 governorships, giving them a majority for the first time since 2010.
