A bipartisan proposal for a Serbia-related bill, submitted to the U.S. Senate, is significant not only because it is backed by a Republican senator and a Democrat, but also because it “shows that both parties are following developments in Serbia independently of the White House’s position,” says Olivia Olson, an associate at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
The bill was introduced by Republican Senator Chuck Grassley and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, Radio Free Europe reports.
What Does the Serbia Bill Propose?
Among other measures, the bill proposes financial and visa sanctions against individuals who obstruct international agreements considered important to the stability of the Western Balkans. It also calls for Serbia’s foreign policy to be aligned more closely with that of the EU and NATO, as well as for Serbia to distance itself from the influence of Russia, China, and Iran.
Serbia is urged to strengthen the rule of law, investigate cases of corruption, and conduct a full investigation into the circumstances surrounding the Novi Sad tragedy—the collapse of a roof canopy at the railway station that resulted in the deaths of 16 people—as well as investigate what the bill describes as the excessive use of force against protesters in Serbia.
For the bill to become law, it must be approved by both chambers of Congress—the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Two months ago, an almost identical bill, which had been submitted to the Senate for consideration, was introduced in the House of Representatives at the end of August by Republican Congressman Joe Wilson and Democrat Bill Keating.
The Serbia Bill in the U.S. Senate and the Elections in Serbia
Given the intense developments in the weeks leading up to the elections, Vučić—who resigned as president of Serbia on September 27, one month before election day—is primarily focused on domestic issues, Olson adds.
“Historically, his relations with the United States have been closer to the executive branch of government. The new U.S.-Serbia strategic dialogue and the administration’s interest in EXPO 2027 in Serbia are considered the high point of relations between his government and the Trump administration,” she says.
The bill, meanwhile, also provides for the suspension of the strategic dialogue, which, after several postponements and a year and a half after it was launched, was renewed between Serbia and the United States with the signing of a Memorandum of Cooperation in the fields of energy and infrastructure in July of this year.
Why Is the Senate Proposal Considered “Decisive”?
The timing of the bipartisan Serbia bill’s submission to the U.S. Senate is significant, says Ilva Tare, an associate at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, in a statement to Radio Free Europe.
“The bill itself represents a rare bipartisan message from both chambers of Congress, sent just three weeks before the October 25 elections,” she says.
“The State Department, in its report on the Western Balkans, also emphasizes that weak governance in Serbia creates space for Russian and Chinese influence. However, the language of this bill is closer to Brussels’ efforts to advance the rule of law and strengthen institutions, particularly when it comes to democratic conditionality,” Tare emphasizes.
“Will this bill change Vučić’s behavior? I do not believe that will happen overnight, nor without domestic and external pressure. We will also have to see the election results and whether those results will be accepted,” Tare says.
Adding that, by passing the bill, Congress would send an important message, Tare stresses that the initiative comes at a significant moment, given that early parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in Serbia on October 25.
The Student List, representing the student movement that emerged from a wave of anti-corruption protests lasting more than a year, is participating in the elections.
The bill particularly emphasizes the need for free and fair elections, as well as guarantees for freedom of expression and assembly.
“These elections could also bring an end to Vučić’s long-standing foreign policy of maintaining relations with all sides simultaneously, while this process could mark a moment of truth,” she says, referring to Serbia’s longstanding policy of maintaining parallel cooperation with Russia, China, and the United States while also pursuing European integration.
Will Vučić Change His Approach?
“Vučić will not change his behavior, regardless of everything. He will continue to pursue his policy, which essentially consists of remaining in power for as long as possible,” believes Ivana Stradner of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“But this is extremely important because it sends a very clear signal to the opposition that America is closely following Vučić’s actions,” Stradner told Radio Free Europe, adding that “Vučić is friends with China, Russia, and Iran, while with friends like Vučić, Washington does not need enemies.”
She adds that Vučić presents himself as a pillar of stability, which, in her view, is not the case.
“He is the one who always wants to raise tensions, then lower them, and afterward present himself as a pillar of stability,” she concludes.
Stradner has no doubts about where she believes external support for Serbia’s current leadership is coming from.
“In fact, Putin is the one who has openly said that he hopes Vučić will become prime minister. This essentially means that Moscow is prepared to destabilize Serbia and provide Vučić with a package of measures to preserve the regime,” she says.
Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, stated at a forum in Moscow two days ago that he hopes Vučić will become Serbia’s next prime minister. So far, this statement is the only signal indicating the direction in which the Kremlin is looking ahead of the upcoming elections.
