Serbia has adopted a dual approach in its relations with Kosovo, a key issue for regional stability. Under the leadership of President Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia has employed a combination of threats and negotiations to advance its national interests. This “push and pull” strategy allows Belgrade to oscillate between aggression and diplomacy, using the threat tactic to destabilize Kosovo while consolidating domestic support, all the while engaging in a camouflage dialogue to maintain international legitimacy.
The Push Strategy: Assertive Nationalism
Vučić often adopts a confrontational stance towards Kosovo, referring to Serbia’s historical, cultural, and religious claims over Kosovo’s territory. This approach is not just rhetoric; it is backed by military posturing and aggressive rhetoric that serve to mobilize nationalist sentiment within Serbia. The Serbian government’s support for the Serb community in Kosovo, particularly for controversial figures, is not support for development but rather for destabilization, further exacerbating ethnic tensions and complicating the already complex relationship between the two states.
This push strategy serves several purposes:
– Mobilizing Domestic Support: By emphasizing Serbia’s historical claims, Vučić appeals to nationalist-chauvinist sentiments, consolidating his political base.
– Restraining Kosovo’s Actions: Military readiness and aggressive rhetoric signal to Kosovo and the international community that Serbia is ready to defend its interests, interfering with Kosovo’s internal affairs and the establishment of law and order.
The Pull Strategy: Pragmatic Engagement
Despite the aggressive stance, Vučić engages in dialogue with Kosovo, facilitated by the European Union. This pull strategy is characterized by a willingness to negotiate and seek normalization of relations, albeit from a position of strength. Vučić positions himself as a pragmatic leader open to discussions but also critical of the conditions being proposed, seeking to extract significant concessions that align with Serbia’s national interests.
This dual approach allows Vučić to:
– Maintain International Legitimacy: By participating in negotiations, Serbia can present itself as a responsible actor on the international stage, countering accusations of being an aggressor.
– Leverage EU Support: Engaging in dialogue with Kosovo is crucial for Serbia’s ambitions of EU integration, allowing Vučić to secure necessary support and funding from the bloc.
– Advance the “Serb World” Project: The dual approach enables the pursuit of appeasement from Western powers while ensuring the gradual advancement of the “Serb World” plan, or preparing the ground for its conventional realization in response to changing geopolitical circumstances.
Push: Criticism and Victimization
Vučić often criticizes the EU, portraying Serbia as a victim of bias in the dialogue with Kosovo. This strategy mobilizes domestic support and increases pressure for better terms in Serbia’s EU membership process. By presenting the EU as an unfair mediator, he aims to position Serbia as a misunderstood partner deserving more consideration.
Pull: Commitment to the EU
At the same time, Vučić continues to prioritize EU membership as a strategic objective. Significant reforms have been undertaken to align with EU standards, aiming to secure support and funding for development and political stability.
Motives Behind the Strategy
– Leverage in Negotiations: This strategy gives Vučić space to extract concessions and delay unfavorable agreements.
– Political Capital: Portraying himself as a defender of national interests strengthens nationalist support.
– Geopolitical Flexibility: Vučić maintains relationships with multiple actors, avoiding dependence on a single power.
Challenges of the Strategy
– Difficult Negotiations: Vučić’s strategy complicates dialogue with Kosovo, hindering trust-building and long-term agreements.
– Obstacle to EU Integration: Serbia’s strong ties with Russia and China may slow down the EU integration process, as they often conflict with EU values.
– Risk to Regional Stability: While Vučić may position himself as a stabilizer, his unstable and often unpredictable stance risks worsening tensions in the region, raising opposition from neighbors and international actors.
Serbia’s Military Posturing and Threats Towards Kosovo
– March 2018: The arrest of Marko Đurić for illegal entry into Mitrovica sparked an immediate rise in tensions in the region. Serbia’s President Vučić ordered the Serbian army to be on high alert and used threatening rhetoric to pressure Kosovo. This action aimed to intimidate Prishtina and influence the dynamics of international relations.
– 2019 and 2020: During these two years, Serbia did not display any significant military activity near the border with Kosovo. However, tensions remained high through harsh rhetoric and diplomatic threats, where Serbia continued to use exclusionary and challenging rhetoric against Kosovo and international representatives.
– September 2021: After the reciprocity measures on license plates came into effect, Vučić ordered the readiness of the Serbian army and deployed armored vehicles and fighter jets near the border with Kosovo. This move was an open threat and aimed to demonstrate Serbia’s political and military strength. This step significantly raised tensions and raised concerns about stability in the region among international partners.
– July 2022: The new regulation of the Government of Kosovo requiring legal documents and car plates even in the north of Kosovo caused significant tensions. Vučić again ordered the Serbian army to be on high alert, while Serbia deployed military troops near the border. A potential conflict was avoided due to international efforts to manage the situation, particularly by the European Union and the United States.
– December 2022: After the arrest of a former Serb police officer in Kosovo, local Serbs re-established barricades in northern Kosovo. Vučić raised the level of military readiness in Serbia and sent additional troops and armored vehicles to the border area. This was one of the most serious military threat actions that Serbia had undertaken during this period.
– May 2023: After heightened tensions during local elections, clashes between local Serbs and Kosovo’s security forces intensified. Vučić once again ordered high military readiness and deployed troops and armored vehicles closer to the border. During this time, KFOR was engaged to de-escalate the situation and maintain stability in the region.
– June 2023: Violent protests against security forces and KFOR in northern Kosovo again led to an increase in military readiness on Vučić’s part. The use of open threats and military mobilization aimed to show Serbia’s readiness to intervene in case of further escalation.
– September 2023: A well-prepared and armed terrorist group, led by Milan Radojičić, carried out an attack in the village of Banjskë, in the municipality of Zveçan, with the clear goal of escalating the situation towards armed conflicts. This terrorist act, involving professionally trained individuals infiltrated from Serbia, aimed to create a destabilizing atmosphere in Kosovo. The group was given clear instructions from Serbian authorities to provoke tensions, aiming for secession in northern Kosovo and undermining overall regional stability.
Conclusion
Serbia’s “push and pull” strategy under Vučić reflects complex contemporary geopolitical dynamics in the Western Balkans. While allowing some flexibility in navigating relations with Kosovo, the EU, and other global powers, it also presents significant challenges in terms of trust, regional stability, and international law. As Serbia continues to balance these conflicting interests, and the West continues to play the appeasement game with Serbia, the situation in the Western Balkans will remain a neuralgic point easily influenced by Russian hybrid warfare.
