Europe is preparing to sustain its economic and military support for Ukraine even if the United States reduces its assistance, as uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s approach to the war and relations with Moscow raises concerns about the future of transatlantic cooperation.
Discussions between European capitals and the European Commission have increasingly focused on the need for European countries to become more self-reliant in security and defence. Some officials are looking toward the 2028 US presidential election as a potential turning point in Washington’s approach to Ukraine and Russia, although the outcome and its implications remain uncertain.
Recent tensions reportedly intensified after the White House asked European partners to release part of their oil reserves amid rising energy prices. European G7 members agreed to the request, but Trump reportedly considered the volume released insufficient.
Dissatisfaction in Washington subsequently became more pronounced through diplomatic channels, culminating in a telephone conversation between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday. According to the account, the US administration pointed to what it described as a lack of cooperation from European partners.
The developments have raised concerns in Brussels, particularly because Washington had previously pressed European countries to reduce purchases of Russian oil.
The European Commission has reiterated its commitment to reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels, while EU foreign ministers have approved a new package of sanctions against the Kremlin.
Concerns over a possible US-Russia energy deal
European concerns extend beyond Washington’s position on the war in Ukraine. According to the report, European intelligence assessments have raised the possibility that contacts between Trump and Putin could pave the way for future agreements on energy cooperation and the exploitation of Russian gas and oil reserves after the war.
Some European policymakers fear that such arrangements could involve concessions to Moscow in exchange for energy-related benefits, potentially undermining Europe’s economic and security interests.
Against this backdrop, a strategy described as “passive resistance” is gaining attention: maintaining support for Ukraine over the next two years while strengthening Europe’s ability to act independently of Washington.
European financial assistance is considered essential to Kyiv’s ability to keep the state functioning and sustain its defence. Ukraine’s domestic revenues are insufficient to cover the country’s needs under wartime conditions, making continued external funding particularly important.
Air defence and military capacity remain key challenges
One of the central issues ahead of the next European summit is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for additional air-defence assistance, particularly missiles for Patriot systems.
European countries intend to continue supporting Ukraine, but they must also preserve sufficient military capacity to defend their own territory. European military planners have warned that, if Russia expands the conflict, European states must be prepared to respond, especially if the United States further reduces its military presence on the continent.
Another major concern is Ukraine’s dependence on American military technology and infrastructure. Ukrainian air-defence capabilities and military operations rely partly on US satellite support. Any reduction in American logistical assistance, combined with restrictions on SpaceX’s Starlink service, could create additional difficulties for Ukraine’s ability to sustain its resistance.
These vulnerabilities highlight the broader challenge facing European governments: maintaining support for Kyiv while accelerating efforts to strengthen their own defence capabilities.
Looking toward 2028
Europe’s emerging approach is intended to help the continent navigate a period of uncertainty in its relationship with Washington without abandoning Ukraine. The strategy would require European governments to maintain financial and military assistance, expand their defence capacity and prepare for the possibility of a more limited US role.
The hope among some European policymakers is that the political landscape in Washington could change after the 2028 presidential election, potentially opening the door to a different approach to European security and the war in Ukraine.
Until then, European governments face the challenge of sustaining Ukraine’s defence while preparing for a security environment in which US support can no longer be taken for granted.
