The American professor, Edward P. Joseph, who is well acquainted with the developments in the Balkans, answered several questions in a panel of the “Budapest Balkans Forum” about the region and the approach that the EU and the USA have towards it. In a scenario where former US President Donald Trump returns to power and withdraws US forces from NATO, what would happen to the Balkans, Joseph says that would be bad news.
“If this is the question, what would happen if the US forces were reduced, that would be very bad news, because the EU alone is not capable of maintaining peace in the region. However, the EU is doing better, but is still not taken as seriously as the US. The main examples are both in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo, where everyone sees the USA as the leader”, he said.
Meanwhile, when asked how the EU can solve the Balkan knot, Joseph said that the EU is responsible for the problem.
“Perhaps, in a way, the EU is 100 percent responsible for the problem. And the answer is theoretically yes, the EU can change this with the US. And we explain the knowledge of crisis management in a report published by Johns Hopkins University and the Wilson Center; it is called ‘From crisis to convergence’. In fact, it is a very simple explanation.”
“How can the problems related to the Balkans be so simple?”, was the question for the American professor.
“We simplified this. Most of the problem is Serbia. Serbia refuses to choose its orientation. Belgrade essentially rejects the Western order for the region… They are within their current borders and the minorities within them have rights. But we are not there to create new states, we are not there for further division.
So how is the EU responsible? It is also very simple because Serbia would choose the Western orientation if the EU, even within NATO, had unified positions. This is the key.”
Joseph is in favor of the opinion that the West should have a unified position on the status of Kosovo.
“Uniform recognition of Kosovo is essential. The problem is that five EU countries (Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain), four of which are in NATO, do not recognize Kosovo. Because of this, even Serbia does not recognize him. This game requires the participation of Serbia. Because there are minorities in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo. So it can play this game with its minority, designing”.
For Belgrade’s use of the Serbian minority to achieve its goals, Joseph considers it more of a political problem.
“But if they change their attitude, even just towards NATO, it is possible to solve it. In my next letter, I explain that if Ukraine recognizes Kosovo, then others will have to follow suit. I have titled this article “Kiev-Kosovo Catalyst”.
