New public opinion research is delivering several unfavorable signals for Serbia’s ruling establishment, with nearly half of respondents saying the country is moving in the wrong direction and corruption continuing to rank as the country’s biggest problem.
According to a survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), published by Savremena politika, 49 percent of respondents believe Serbia is heading in the wrong direction, while 41 percent believe the country is moving in the right direction.
Political commentator Aleksandar Ivković, a journalist with European Western Balkans, told N1 that the figures represent bad news for the authorities, arguing that perceptions about the direction of the country can serve as an important indicator of electoral sentiment.
“This does not mean that everyone who believes Serbia is heading in the wrong direction will necessarily vote against the government,” Ivković said, but argued that the indicator has remained unfavorable to the authorities for an extended period.
Corruption remains a major liability
Ivković also pointed to corruption as another significant problem for the government.
He said that since the November 2024 collapse of the railway station canopy in Novi Sad, corruption has consistently ranked among the most important concerns in major opinion polls.
That is particularly problematic for the authorities, he argued, because they would prefer an election campaign focused on issues that are more favorable to them.
The canopy collapse and the subsequent student-led protests significantly reshaped Serbia’s political environment, with corruption, institutional accountability and government responsibility becoming central issues in public debate.
High potential turnout could further challenge the ruling party
The survey also suggests potentially high voter turnout.
Some 68 percent of respondents said they would be “very likely” to vote if parliamentary elections were held on Sunday, while another 15 percent said they would be “likely” to vote.
According to Ivković, high turnout could create additional difficulties for the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), particularly if voters who are currently less politically engaged turn out in large numbers.
He argued that existing research does not indicate that the government has significantly expanded its potential voter base, meaning that increased turnout could disproportionately benefit forces opposed to the current authorities.
“The greater the turnout and the more voters who are decided, the more negative the news is for the ruling party,” Ivković said.
Support for EU membership rises
The research also points to growing support for Serbia’s membership in the European Union, which Ivković linked partly to developments in neighboring countries such as Montenegro and Albania, which have advanced further in their European integration processes.
Support for the EU is particularly strong among people who back the student protests, reaching 61 percent, compared with just over 20 percent who oppose EU membership, according to the figures cited by Ivković.
He suggested that the student movement’s reluctance to take an explicit position on EU membership could be strategic, as openly supporting the EU could potentially alienate voters who oppose membership but might otherwise support a student-backed electoral list.
Elections remain uncertain
Ivković believes the Serbian authorities could opt to hold early parliamentary elections before presidential elections, allowing the ruling party to focus first on securing a parliamentary majority.
However, he stressed that it remains uncertain whether SNS would be able to retain a majority in parliament.
According to Ivković, preparations for parliamentary elections have reportedly begun within SNS, but a final decision on whether elections will actually be called could come in early autumn.
Factors potentially influencing the decision could include planned government financial assistance in September and the outcome of elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina scheduled for October 4.
The latest polling therefore points to a difficult political environment for President Aleksandar Vučić and the ruling establishment, particularly if high voter turnout combines with continued public concern over corruption and dissatisfaction with the country’s direction.
