Brussels is cautiously optimistic following the political change in Serbia, but European officials still have limited knowledge of the opposition Students’ List and want to see how the new leadership approaches democratic reforms and European integration, according to Strahinja Subotić, programme manager and senior researcher at the Centre for European Policy (CEP).
Speaking to the FoNet news agency, Subotić said EU officials recognise that they have an important opportunity to bring Serbia closer to the European Union, warning that failure to seize the moment could result in the country moving permanently away from the European project.
He described the optimism in Brussels as moderate, explaining that European partners want to give the Students’ List more time to demonstrate how it intends to restore institutions and address the legacy of what had previously been described as a hybrid political system with elements of state capture.
Subotić said particular attention would be paid to the programme presented by the next prime minister, especially the emphasis placed on EU integration and relations with Russia and China.
Although the Students’ List has indicated that it intends to maintain good relations with both Moscow and Beijing, he expects that this will not necessarily translate into deeper cooperation in sensitive sectors, particularly energy.
Sensitive issues, including Kosovo, could be postponed
Subotić said he had conveyed to his interlocutors in Brussels that sensitive issues, including foreign policy and the Belgrade–Prishtina dialogue, should not dominate the political agenda during the initial phase of Serbia’s democratic transformation.
Addressing these questions too early, he argued, could complicate broader efforts to reform the country’s institutions and restore democratic standards.
He added that Serbia could meanwhile benefit from the release of additional EU funds, improved relations with Brussels and renewed cooperation with neighbouring countries, particularly Hungary.
Regarding the possible opening of EU Cluster 3, Subotić said Serbia would first need to rebuild confidence that its new leadership genuinely intends to pursue EU membership.
He estimated that reaching the necessary political consensus could take up to six months.
Subotić also called for early diplomatic engagement, including visits to Podgorica and other regional capitals, as well as Brussels and the Baltic states.
Russia expected to defend its influence in Serbia
Asked whether Moscow would accept a change in Serbia’s foreign policy orientation, Subotić said Russia would seek to preserve its influence in the country.
According to him, Moscow wants Serbia to remain a source of tension in relations between the West and Russia, effectively serving as a strategic obstacle to Western interests in the Balkans.
Subotić argued that maintaining relations with Moscow and Beijing could remain part of Serbia’s national interests, but stressed that diplomatic and economic cooperation should not be confused with ideological alignment.
He suggested that Serbia could maintain relations with both countries while keeping sufficient distance to avoid being perceived as a Russian ally in the Balkans.
Serbia could make progress towards EU integration by 2027
Subotić also pointed to the possibility that Serbia could obtain its IBAR — a positive assessment of its fulfilment of interim benchmarks — as early as November 2027.
Such progress could help Serbia regain its previous position among the countries leading the EU enlargement process in the Western Balkans.
He said Brussels could offer Belgrade concrete short-term incentives, particularly financial assistance through the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, demonstrating that the Union remains committed to Serbia’s potential membership.
According to Subotić, if the new Serbian leadership sends the right signals, Brussels and EU member states could already reassess their approach towards Belgrade by December.
