On Sunday, September 20, voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will head to the polls to elect their respective state parliaments. The election date has also been confirmed by Germany’s Federal Returning Officer. The two elections are taking place amid an important period for German politics, as the AfD has gained ground in the eastern states, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU is facing weak results in several regional polls. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the race for first place remains extremely close between the SPD of State Premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD.
According to the latest poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, published on September 17, the SPD stands at 37%, while the AfD is at 36%. The CDU is at 6%, Die Linke at 9%, the Greens at 5%, and the BSW at 4%. The institute stresses that these figures are projections rather than forecasts of the final result. An earlier INSA poll, meanwhile, put the AfD at 37% and the SPD at 35%, confirming that the gap between the two parties remains narrow. In the 2021 election, the SPD won 39.6% of the vote, the AfD 16.7%, and the CDU 13.3%.
The race in Berlin is also wide open. According to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Die Linke is at 22%, the CDU at 20%, the AfD at 18%, the Greens at 15%, and the SPD at 12%. The BSW stands at 4%. Another poll by Infratest dimap shows very similar figures: Die Linke at 21%, the CDU at 20%, the AfD at 18%, the Greens at 16%, and the SPD at 12%. The central issue in the capital’s campaign has been the housing crisis and rising rents. According to Reuters, rents in Berlin have increased significantly since 2014, while the shortage of housing has become one of the key issues in the election, Euronews Albania reports.
What Could the Results Mean for Merz?
The results in both states will also be closely watched at the federal level. Friedrich Merz and the CDU are facing political pressure following the AfD’s growing strength in eastern Germany and weak CDU results in several regional polls. Reuters has described the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a politically difficult moment for the chancellor. However, the outcome of these elections does not automatically determine the future of the federal government. It could influence debates within the CDU and political relations in Berlin, but any changes at the federal level would require separate political and institutional processes.
In Berlin, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll also shows that the current CDU-SPD coalition would not have a majority according to the September 17 projection. The institute estimates that several other combinations could secure a majority, but these would depend on the actual election result and post-election negotiations.
Therefore, the focus on September 20 is twofold: in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, attention will be on whether the SPD can maintain its lead over the AfD, while in Berlin, the vote could alter the coalition balance in the capital. In both cases, the results will provide an important indication of the state of German politics, without themselves constituting a direct vote on Merz’s federal government.
