Early parliamentary elections in Kosovo which became increasingly likely after the Assembly failed to approve Albin Kurti’s new government on October 26 could bring some changes in party results, according to political analysts.
However, they agree that these changes will probably not be significant enough to avoid the need for coalition governments in the future.
According to Kosovo’s Constitution, President Vjosa Osmani must nominate another candidate to form the government within 10 days.
Yet, Memli Krasniqi, leader of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) the second most voted party has rejected the possibility of becoming the next nominee if the President consults him about having a majority.
Meanwhile, Albin Kurti, head of the Vetëvendosje Movement (LVV), admitted that new elections might now be the only option left to resolve the political crisis.
Elections won’t guarantee coalition-free governance
Political analyst Dritëro Arifi told Radio Free Europe that several factors would shape the results of possible snap elections.
He believes the outcomes of the second round of mayoral elections in Kosovo’s largest municipalities will influence how political parties position themselves for the upcoming parliamentary vote.
According to Arifi, the parties’ tone, messaging, and campaign strategy will also play a major role in determining both results and potential pre- or post-election coalitions.
“From what’s happening on the ground, I’m convinced that no party will have the initial majority needed to form a government with 61 votes,” he said. “Even if one party does, it will be difficult to implement its agenda. A broad cooperation will be necessary.”
Arifi predicts that smaller parties such as the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and Nisma Socialdemokrate might enter pre-election coalitions with larger, mostly opposition parties like the PDK or the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK).
Similarly, Rrahman Paçarizi, a journalism professor at the University of Prishtina, expects changes but not a radical shift.
He argues that if small parties like Nisma or AAK do not enter pre-election coalitions, they risk failing to cross the threshold to enter parliament — a scenario that would redistribute their votes to the larger parties.
“There will be some number changes,” Paçarizi said. “But I don’t foresee any essential shift that could ensure a government without major difficulties. The fact that the Serb List is excluded from coalition calculations means any bloc will be short by ten votes.”
Fear of governing
Despite hopes that early elections might bring political change, experts warn that Kosovo could again face institutional paralysis if parties remain unwilling to cooperate.
Such cooperation, Arifi notes, would be essential because early elections would also determine contenders for the three top state positions — prime minister, assembly speaker, and president.
“The aim will be to form a broad Albanian coalition,” Arifi said. “Regardless of which parties — Vetëvendosje, PDK, or LDK — they’ll have to cooperate to secure all three key positions.”
Paçarizi also sees a potential coalition among major parties as a possible solution, but he is skeptical it will happen, even after snap elections.
He predicts that both major blocs — LVV on one side, and PDK-LDK on the other — will each gain around 40% of the votes, leaving no side able to govern alone.
“No political force dares to take full responsibility for governing, especially due to uncertainty about the dialogue with Serbia,” Paçarizi said. “They fear being forced into a ‘take it or leave it’ situation, which could bring heavy political costs.”
As a result, Kosovo could once again enter a period of institutional stagnation after early elections — unless there is diplomatic engagement from Kosovo’s international allies.
“Such engagement wouldn’t mean forming the government for them,” Paçarizi added, “but rather ensuring guarantees for the way forward — for what awaits the next government and how it should act.”
He concludes that Kosovo needs a broad-based government and a consensual president, who doesn’t necessarily have to belong to any political party.
