Tensions between Serbia and Montenegro continue to escalate, but political observers increasingly argue that the latest confrontation reveals a deeper problem for Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić: the steady decline of Belgrade’s political influence in Montenegro.
Vučić recently accused Montenegro of waging a “hybrid war” against Serbia, a claim that was swiftly rejected by Montenegro’s Foreign Ministry. Analysts say the accusation reflects growing frustration in Belgrade as Montenegro moves closer to membership in the European Union while Serbia’s own accession process remains stalled.
According to foreign policy analyst Boško Jakšić, Vučić is attempting to divert attention from a reality that has become increasingly difficult to ignore: Montenegro is advancing toward European integration while Serbia faces mounting criticism over democratic backsliding and regional tensions.
“Montenegro is clearly pursuing a more successful policy than Serbia and is moving rapidly toward the European Union,” Jakšić said, arguing that Belgrade’s confrontational rhetoric is designed to distract from that contrast.
Even Vučić’s Closest Ally in Montenegro Appears to Be Pulling Away
One of the clearest signs of changing political dynamics is the evolving position of Andrija Mandić, long regarded as one of Vučić’s closest political allies in Montenegro.
For years, Mandić openly maintained strong ties with Serbian political structures and frequently praised Vučić for his support of the Serbian community in Montenegro. Following Serbia’s parliamentary elections in December 2023, Mandić even appeared at the election headquarters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party alongside senior party officials.
However, recent developments suggest a noticeable political recalibration. While Mandić continues to advocate for the interests of Montenegro’s Serbian community, analysts argue that his actions increasingly reflect Montenegro’s state interests rather than Belgrade’s political agenda.
Jakšić described this shift as a significant setback for Vučić.
“Vučić should ask himself why he has lost one of his most loyal allies in Montenegro,” he said, adding that even politicians traditionally aligned with Serbia are increasingly recognizing that Montenegro’s European path serves the country’s national interests.
Dispute Intensifies After Tivat Airport Incident
The latest deterioration in relations was fueled by an incident at Tivat Airport on June 3, when Montenegrin authorities blocked the entry of approximately 90 Serbian citizens who had arrived on a charter flight from Belgrade.
According to Montenegrin security services, the individuals were assessed as potential security risks and were denied entry after several hours of screening.
Authorities reportedly confiscated a banner reading “Serbia Wins,” communication devices, and other equipment during the operation. Several media reports linked some members of the group to previous incidents involving political violence and nationalist mobilization in Serbia.
Montenegro stated that the measures were part of security preparations for international events taking place in Tivat, including the EU–Western Balkans summit.
The incident sparked outrage in Belgrade and became one of the central points of Vučić’s criticism of Montenegro.
Montenegro Rejects “Hybrid War” Accusations
Following Vučić’s allegations, Montenegro’s Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded response, dismissing claims that Podgorica was conducting any form of hybrid warfare against Serbia.
The ministry described the accusations as baseless and suggested they were intended to divert attention from Serbia’s internal political difficulties.
Officials emphasized that Montenegro remains committed to regional cooperation and dialogue, while warning against disinformation campaigns and political pressure.
Belgrade responded by claiming that Montenegro’s reaction itself demonstrated what Serbian officials described as hostile behavior toward Serbia, further deepening the diplomatic dispute.
Growing Concern Over Serbia’s Regional Influence
Analysts increasingly view the conflict as part of a broader struggle over influence in the Western Balkans.
Critics argue that as Montenegro advances toward EU membership and strengthens its Western orientation, Serbia’s traditional political leverage is weakening. This trend has become particularly visible following Montenegro’s accession to NATO and its accelerated EU integration process.
For many observers, the latest dispute is less about security concerns and more about the erosion of Belgrade’s ability to shape political developments in neighboring countries.
As Montenegro moves closer to Brussels and further consolidates its pro-European course, analysts suggest that Serbia’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric may be a sign of diminishing influence rather than growing strength.
