U.S. intelligence agencies warned in their latest annual report that the Western Balkans remains a region marked by heightened political tensions and external influence, highlighting Russia’s role in destabilizing the area.
In the report titled “Annual Threat Assessment 2026”, published by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States, it is stated that the war in Ukraine has deepened divisions between the West and Moscow, a dynamic that is also reflected in the Balkans.
According to the report, Russia “fuels instability between Serbia, which it favors, and Kosovo,” and also “supports the secession of the Serb entity, Republika Srpska, from Bosnia and Herzegovina.”
U.S. intelligence services assess that ethnic and political divisions in the region remain pronounced and pose a potential security risk, particularly when combined with the influence of foreign actors.
The Western Balkans is described in the report as a space where the interests of major powers collide, while existing crises and unresolved disputes—including relations between Kosovo and Serbia, as well as internal political dynamics in Bosnia and Herzegovina—remain key sources of instability, according to the report published on March 18.
The U.S. intelligence community’s report also warns of a broader range of threats across Europe, including political influence, disinformation, and efforts to undermine the security architecture, identifying the Balkans as a particularly sensitive region.
The document further highlights global threats, including increasing competition among major powers—particularly the United States, China, and Russia—as well as the rapid development of cyberattacks and technologies that can be used to destabilize states.
It also emphasizes risks from terrorism, organized crime, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, which continue to pose long-term security challenges.
The report warns of terrorism threats, particularly from individuals or small groups inspired by extremist ideologies acting independently of organized networks.
Although the capabilities of major terrorist organizations have been weakened, the risk of low-intensity attacks remains present, including in Europe, the report concludes.
