Space exploration sometimes has consequences that are not immediately apparent.
According to NASA scientists, a piece of a rocket could collide with the Moon in early August.
In January 2025, about a year and a half ago, Elon Musk’s SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket, sending two spacecraft toward the Moon.
Now, American astronomer Bill Gray and NASA, cited by German news agency dpa, warn that the rocket’s upper stage could accidentally impact the lunar surface.
Current calculations indicate that the collision could occur on August 5.
According to Space.com, a panel discussion involving experts on the anticipated impact was held in early July and organized by NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI).
“The Moon is a dynamic environment,” lunar observer Brian Day said. “Changes and impacts happen.”
Will the impact be visible from Earth?
Experts are currently debating whether the collision will be visible from Earth.
From Earth’s perspective, the rocket stage could strike near the edge of the Moon’s visible disk. The resulting dust cloud may be illuminated by the Sun, potentially making it observable from Earth.
The Falcon 9 upper stage weighs approximately four metric tons and is currently traveling at more than two kilometers per second, according to Space.com.
However, NASA believes the chances of observing the impact from Earth are low.
“I think it will be very, very difficult to see—if not impossible,” said William Cooke, a manager at NASA, according to dpa.
The prediction of the potential lunar impact was published by astronomer Bill Gray of Project Pluto, who developed the Guide astronomy software used by both amateur and professional astronomers to track near-Earth objects.
His calculations predict a lunar impact on August 5, 2026.
Earlier calculations had even suggested that a collision in March was possible, as previously reported by National Geographic.
Gray emphasized that the potential impact poses no danger.
Unplanned impacts caused by space debris
As the amount of space debris continues to increase, incidents like this could become more common.
A similar event occurred four years ago, when images captured by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter showed space debris striking the Moon. At the time, NASA scientists suspected that the object was part of an old Chinese rocket, although China rejected those claims.
Intentional impacts on the Moon are also carried out for scientific research purposes, but unlike this event, those missions are carefully planned.
