Serbia’s student-backed political movement has achieved a historic electoral breakthrough, but Aleksandar Vučić is likely to remain a major political force capable of challenging the incoming leadership, according to Nikola Xaviereff-Weckwerth, a Balkans expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
In an interview with Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL) following the parliamentary elections on October 25, Xaviereff-Weckwerth described the Students’ List’s reported victory as a “generational victory” and a significant moment for Europe.
According to preliminary results cited by election observers, the Students’ List received approximately 52 percent of the vote, around 10 percentage points ahead of the United Serbia list led by Vučić.
The result marks a major setback for the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which had governed the country for 14 years.
Xaviereff-Weckwerth argued that the result reflected not simply a divided society, but an election conducted under unequal political conditions.
“Serbian society is polarized, but not in a 50-50 ratio, in a system that is not fair and just,” he said, adding that the student movement may have broader support than the reported vote share suggests.
The Students’ List emerged from two years of protests centered on corruption, accountability and the rule of law. Candidates were selected through university plenums, which became a leading force in the protest movement.
Vučić remains a formidable opponent
Despite acknowledging defeat, Vučić is not expected to disappear from Serbian politics, Xaviereff-Weckwerth said.
The SNS leader has already begun positioning himself for the next political phase, while the student movement faces the challenge of translating its electoral success into effective governance.
“The conflict in Serbian society and Serbian politics will not disappear,” the analyst said, predicting a new phase of political competition as the student movement attempts to take control of parliament and state institutions.
He warned that the transition would neither be easy nor quick, arguing that Vučić and his political allies would continue to use political tactics and public messaging to exploit mistakes made by the incoming leadership.
The analyst also pointed to the upcoming presidential election as another important test for the student movement and the opposition, emphasizing the need to prepare carefully after tensions surrounding the parliamentary vote have eased.
He drew comparisons with political transitions elsewhere in Europe, including Poland and Italy, where new governments have faced difficulties delivering promised changes quickly after taking office.
Students must turn protest demands into a governing program
The Students’ List has deliberately avoided presenting a single prominent leader, a strategy Xaviereff-Weckwerth said was intended to prevent Vučić’s party from concentrating its attacks on one individual.
However, the movement’s lack of a clearly defined political and economic platform presents a significant challenge as it prepares to govern.
The analyst described the movement as a protest-driven force born out of public frustration, particularly following the 2024 collapse of a railway station canopy and the subsequent controversy over accountability.
He said its immediate priority should be to strengthen the rule of law, restore institutional accountability and address problems within the state system.
Rather than predicting the movement’s future economic or foreign policy, he emphasized the need for its leaders to explain what they intend to do, how they plan to implement their policies and why those measures are necessary.
Xaviereff-Weckwerth characterized the potential transition as an attempt at political liberalization, while cautioning that it should not automatically be equated with liberalism as a fully developed political ideology.
He argued that continued SNS rule could have resulted in further concentration of political power, while the student movement’s stated reform ambitions could create an opportunity to strengthen democratic institutions.
Russia, China and the European Union
The student movement’s foreign policy remains one of the major unanswered questions following the election.
Xaviereff-Weckwerth said the incoming government would need time to clarify its approach to Russia, the United States, China and the European Union.
He suggested that Serbia was unlikely to impose sanctions on Russia unless faced with substantial pressure from Brussels.
The future of the Serbian oil company NIS, in which Russian capital plays a significant role, will also be an important issue. Negotiations involving Hungary’s MOL could shape the company’s ownership and Serbia’s efforts to address the consequences of U.S. sanctions.
China, however, may prove particularly important to the new leadership, the analyst said.
Over the past several years, Beijing has been a relatively stable partner for Serbia, maintaining close relations with Vučić’s government and supporting a range of economic and infrastructure projects.
Xaviereff-Weckwerth expects China to approach a change of government pragmatically, while the student movement will have to decide how to maintain economic cooperation without compromising its broader reform agenda.
Economic growth will be a major test
The analyst said the new leadership would face pressure to preserve economic growth while addressing inequality and concerns about the financing and transparency of infrastructure projects undertaken under the previous government.
He acknowledged that Serbia had experienced economic growth and completed major infrastructure projects during Vučić’s time in power, while stressing that those developments were influenced by several factors and that some projects had raised questions over the use of public money.
The challenge for the Students’ List will be to retain policies and projects that have delivered benefits while addressing practices it considers problematic.
Delivering visible economic results will be essential to maintaining public support, particularly if institutional reforms take longer than expected.
Implications for the Western Balkans
Xaviereff-Weckwerth also suggested that the political change in Serbia could affect relations across the Western Balkans, including with Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro.
Serbia is often viewed as a key factor in regional stability because of its size and political influence. However, critics have also accused Belgrade of contributing to regional tensions.
The analyst said the new government could pursue a more stable approach toward neighboring countries, although the direction of its regional policy remains uncertain.
Kosovo will remain a particularly sensitive issue. The student movement has not indicated a fundamental departure from Serbia’s established position that Kosovo is part of Serbia, and its approach to relations with Prishtina remains to be clarified.
Xaviereff-Weckwerth highlighted Montenegro’s European integration process as another area to watch. He argued that a change in Belgrade could reduce concerns about political pressure or hybrid activities aimed at slowing Montenegro’s progress toward EU membership.
He added that Montenegro’s success in joining the EU should not be treated as a failure for Serbia.
The lessons of October 5, 2000
The analyst cautioned against interpreting the election result as the end of Vučić’s political career.
Drawing comparisons with October 5, 2000, when mass protests led to the fall of Slobodan Milošević, he said Serbia’s latest political transition would require sustained effort to avoid repeating the difficulties experienced after earlier changes of government.
“I do not think we are looking at the end of Aleksandar Vučić,” Xaviereff-Weckwerth said, predicting that the SNS leader would remain politically active for years.
He warned that the student movement would face a powerful and experienced political organization capable of exploiting its mistakes and internal disagreements.
The movement must therefore present a clear program and demonstrate that it can deliver the changes voters expect, he said.
A wider crisis of democracy
Xaviereff-Weckwerth also placed Serbia’s political developments within a broader European crisis of confidence in liberal democracy.
He argued that Serbia’s experience differs from that of EU member states because the country lacks the same institutional checks and balances and mechanisms of accountability that operate within established European democracies.
At the same time, he said public frustration in Serbia shares similarities with political discontent in other European countries, reflecting wider social and technological changes and concerns about the functioning of democratic systems.
The election result represents a major generational shift in Serbian politics, according to the analyst, but the transition ahead will depend on whether the student movement can convert public support into a coherent governing program.
For now, the central challenge is clear: electoral success has opened the door to political change, but Vučić and the SNS remain powerful opponents, and the work of transforming Serbia’s institutions is only beginning.
