Serbia faces a pivotal parliamentary election on Sunday, October 25, amid growing political tensions, student-led protests and mounting allegations of electoral manipulation. In an analysis published by Radar, journalist Vera Didanović argues that the vote could mark a turning point for the country, although the outcome alone will not determine whether Serbia moves towards democracy or deeper authoritarianism.
The article examines the future of Serbia after 14 years of rule by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), characterised by the author as a period marked by corruption, weakened institutions and restrictions on media freedom.
Didanović argues that voters face a fundamental choice between the prospect of building a democratic state governed by the rule of law and the risk of further concentration of political power. She also stresses that, regardless of the result, the struggle over Serbia’s political future will continue beyond election day.
“On October 26, we will wake up in a country that cannot be the same as it is today,” the article states, describing several possible scenarios: an SNS victory, a win for the student-backed list, disputed results or repeated voting at individual polling stations.
The author argues that even an officially declared victory for the ruling party would not necessarily resolve the political crisis, particularly if allegations of irregularities remain unaddressed.
Allegations of weakening support for SNS
The analysis points to signs that the ruling party may be facing organisational and political difficulties. It cites figures suggesting that SNS struggled to fill all its allocated positions on expanded polling station boards in Užice, where it reportedly filled 110 of 178 positions. The student-backed list reportedly filled 176.
The article also discusses allegations of payments for political activities, intimidation and vote-buying, based on reporting by investigative media and other organisations. These claims have not, simply by being reported, established criminal responsibility.
Didanović further highlights recent revelations and investigations concerning suspected corruption, the alleged use of advanced spyware against public figures and questions about links between businesses and state institutions.
The article presents these developments as evidence of mounting pressure on the ruling establishment, while arguing that the full extent of the alleged abuses must be established through appropriate investigations.
Student movement challenges the political establishment
The student movement, which emerged following the collapse of the railway station canopy in Novi Sad in November 2024, is described as the most significant challenge to the ruling party in years.
The movement has mobilised students and citizens across Serbia, with demands for accountability and institutional change. Its electoral list, Students Are Winning, represents an alternative to the established political parties.
According to Didanović, the ruling party’s campaign has shown signs of strain, while the student movement has continued to attract public attention. The article also describes hostile portrayals of the movement in pro-government media and alleged intimidation during the campaign.
The author argues that the political contest is no longer limited to the question of who will secure a parliamentary majority. It also concerns the future independence of institutions, the media environment and the accountability of public officials.
International pressure and political uncertainty
The analysis also points to difficulties in Serbia’s relations with some international partners. It refers to concerns raised by European institutions about the rule of law and political debate, as well as tensions surrounding election observation.
Didanović argues that President Aleksandar Vučić could seek to retain political influence even if the ruling party loses its parliamentary majority. The article warns that a change in government would not automatically dismantle the existing networks of political and economic power.
Even in the event of an opposition victory, SNS would likely retain a significant parliamentary presence and influence in local government, public institutions and parts of the media, according to the analysis.
The challenge would continue after election day
The author stresses that an electoral victory for the opposition or student-backed list would be only the beginning of a much longer process of institutional reform.
A new government would face potential obstruction from political opponents, substantial public expectations and pressure from supporters demanding rapid change. Reforming the judiciary, police, public administration and media environment would require time and sustained political commitment.
Didanović also warns that dissatisfaction with the pace of change could create opportunities for another form of concentrated political power to emerge.
The article concludes that Sunday may indeed prove historic, but that the significance of the election will depend on what follows.
“Some change will happen; it is up to us to ensure that it is positive,” the author writes.
