European intelligence agencies have found no indications that Russia is preparing a military attack against European NATO member states, a senior European official said Thursday.
“European agencies do not see a risk of a Russian attack on European countries,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The assessment comes as concerns have grown in the United States over the possibility that Moscow could seek to test NATO’s unity and willingness to respond to a security challenge.
U.S. media outlets have reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe sought to warn Russian officials against any attack on a NATO member during his visit to Moscow this week.
The Wall Street Journal and CBS reported that the visit was linked to U.S. intelligence assessments suggesting that Moscow could attempt to test the Alliance through actions designed to challenge its response and cohesion.
The reported discussions came shortly after President Donald Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not attack NATO territory and downplayed reports that Ratcliffe had traveled to Moscow specifically to deliver such a warning.
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that Russia is preparing for a direct confrontation with NATO.
Western intelligence concerns, however, extend beyond the possibility of a conventional military assault. European governments have increasingly focused on the risk of hybrid operations, cyberattacks, sabotage and other actions that could test the limits of NATO’s response without triggering an immediate full-scale military confrontation.
For now, European intelligence assessments indicate that there is no evidence of preparations for a direct Russian military attack against European NATO members.
The assessment nevertheless underscores the distinction between the absence of an imminent conventional attack and broader concerns about Russia’s ability and willingness to conduct hybrid operations against NATO countries.
