Apparently, key members of the Western foreign policy elite are reading minds: They claim to know exactly what the intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin are. Distinguished officials and political commentators increasingly agree that his ambitions are boundless and that Ukraine is just his first target. Western officials are not sure when Russia will attack NATO, but a growing consensus seems to believe that a broader war is inevitable if Moscow is not deterred decisively. The fact is that none of these individuals knows what Putin or Russia will do if the war in Ukraine ends with Russia in control of part of Ukrainian territory before 2022. It is possible that Putin has grand ambitions and will seek to follow up a costly success in Ukraine with a new attack elsewhere. But it is also entirely possible that his ambitions do not extend beyond what Russia has gained, at great cost, and that he neither needs nor desires to play further. No one should take Putin’s assurances at face value, but nor should anyone automatically assume that everything he says is a lie.
The Situation in Kaliningrad
The risk is more than a feeling when you look at the eastern border of Russia, that of the Baltic city of Kaliningrad. A little further south, on the border between Poland and Lithuania, in the Suwalki corridor about 100 km long and, more precisely, in the city of Korzeniewo, the “Dragon 24” exercise began over a month ago, the largest ever in the post-war period, with more than twenty thousand men, soldiers from all NATO countries. From the outset, the “Dragon 24” exercise was designed to test NATO’s interoperability. The exercise ensured troops from all participating NATO allied countries better understand their equipment and capabilities, themselves, and how to work together with members from around the world. Whether rain or cold temperatures, nothing could deter NATO troops from achieving their goals; NATO’s strong points were highlighted and reinforced with expert leadership and a willingness to work together.
NATO Exercises
Fuori dal Coro, Rete4’s in-depth political and social program, hosted by Mario Giordano, sent correspondent Raffaella Regoli there to document the situation. Entering the fields around the military base, Regoli witnesses a large deployment of forces: “Hidden behind the NATO base, here are the neighborhoods that will have to accommodate troops from different nations, for a massive military exercise. All this, the journalist explains, confirms what the German newspaper Bild revealed, referring to a secret document that speaks of escalating tensions between NATO and Russia precisely there, on the eastern border, not far from the Baltic Sea. Deputy Chief of Operations at the Allied Joint Forces Command Brunssum, U.S. Major General Randolph Staudenraus, explains the reason for this choice. “NATO forces, in addition to deterrence and defense, can also respond to any threat, when and where necessary. throughout the allied territory, this is NATO and together we are stronger,” he said.
The West’s ‘Duties’
“With backpacks on their shoulders and weapons loaded, soldiers march through NATO’s camp and along the Vistula River, even with the intervention of air assets, for what really should be considered just an exercise?” Italian media write, alluding that this is a prelude to an escalation of violence that could lead to a war that, in the most extreme case, would turn into a nuclear conflict. “The risk is there and can be clearly seen,” writes “Libero Qutidiano,” adding that the United States and its allies in NATO must acknowledge Russia’s legitimate security concerns and consider what they can do to mitigate them, although such an effort would be debatable and difficult.”
