German Western Balkans policy analyst Kurt W. Bassuener has said that Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik has long been Russia’s most valuable partner in the Western Balkans.
In an interview with Telegrafi, the co-founder of the Democratization Policy Council (DPC) said Dodik had been firmly aligned with Moscow for nearly two decades, distinguishing his approach from that of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
According to Bassuener, Vučić has pursued a policy of geopolitical arbitrage, while Dodik has maintained a much clearer orientation towards Russia.
“While Vučić has pursued a policy of geopolitical arbitrage, demonstrating a spiritual and moral orientation towards the East, Dodik has been fully aligned with Russia for nearly two decades,” he said.
However, the analyst noted that since 2025, Dodik has begun diversifying his approach by seeking closer ties with US President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.
According to Bassuener, Dodik’s rapprochement with the US administration can be explained by his political interests and efforts to secure his political survival. Meanwhile, Moscow has reason to worry that its influence over a partner who has proven effective in the region could diminish.
Bassuener stressed that Dodik should not be viewed simply as a Russian instrument, but rather as a partner who also acts in pursuit of his own interests.
“I want to be clear: I think Dodik is a partner of Moscow, not its puppet, although he is clearly the junior partner in this relationship,” he said.
The analyst also pointed to Dodik’s efforts to cultivate closer ties with the MAGA movement and Trump through lobbying and by promoting his nationalist and Islamophobic views.
According to Bassuener, this approach reflects Dodik’s geopolitical opportunism and political survival instincts, at a time when developments in international relations are creating new opportunities for alliances and influence in the region.
