The dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia has been at a standstill for 18 months, with no high-level meetings taking place. As both countries grapple with internal challenges, the prospect of a final agreement seems increasingly distant, reports RFE.
EU’s Approach and the Need for Recognition
Analysts argue that the international community should shift its focus toward mutual recognition rather than just normalizing relations. EU Special Envoy Peter Sorensen recently visited Prishtina, stressing the importance of continuing talks, though it remains unclear if a breakthrough is imminent.
The Banjska Incident and Stalled Negotiations
The last meeting between Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić in September 2023 yielded no progress. Shortly after, a violent attack in Banjska by armed Serb groups escalated tensions, further hindering dialogue efforts. Kosovo demands the lifting of EU-imposed punitive measures and the extradition of attackers, while Serbia insists on forming the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities (ASM).
The ASM Debate and Kosovo’s Position
The ASM remains a key demand from Serbia, but Kosovo has resisted its implementation, citing risks to state functionality. While some suggest a diluted version of the ASM as a compromise, concerns remain over replicating Bosnia’s dysfunctional governance model.
Recognition as the Key to Stability
Analysts emphasize that the EU should push for mutual recognition as the primary goal of the dialogue. A potential step forward would be for the five EU countries that have yet to recognize Kosovo to do so, pressuring Serbia to acknowledge Kosovo’s sovereignty.
Geopolitical Shifts and US Involvement
With global attention focused on Ukraine and uncertainty over the US stance—especially if Donald Trump returns to power—Kosovo must maintain strong ties with Washington. The EU, despite its cautious approach, has a unique opportunity to drive change in the Western Balkans. However, without a decisive shift in policy, the stagnation of the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue may continue indefinitely.
