More than 30 million people are at risk of falling back into poverty due to the consequences of the war in Iran, according to the head of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Alexandre de Croix.
He emphasizes that disruptions in fuel and fertilizer supply chains are already worsening the situation.
Speaking to Reuters, De Croix said that fertilizer shortages—exacerbated by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—are beginning to negatively affect agricultural production. This development is expected to have a direct impact on this year’s harvests, further worsening the food situation.
He warned that food insecurity is expected to peak in the coming months, while immediate response options remain limited. Even in the event of an immediate cessation of hostilities, the impacts have already begun and will continue to affect millions of people.
It is noted that a significant share of global fertilizer production comes from the Middle East, while approximately one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making the region critical to the global food supply chain.
At the same time, international organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations World Food Programme have already warned of an expected rise in food prices, which will primarily affect the most vulnerable social groups.
According to De Croix, the broader economic consequences of the crisis have already resulted in estimated global GDP losses of between 0.5% and 0.8%, underlining that damage caused within just a few weeks could take decades to repair.
Meanwhile, the deteriorating situation is significantly hindering the work of humanitarian organizations, as funding is decreasing while needs are rising in already crisis-affected areas such as Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.
He warned that there may be situations where the international community will not be able to provide the required assistance, leaving vulnerable populations without support and exposed to even harsher living conditions.
