Serbia’s snap parliamentary elections on October 25 are widely seen as the most significant electoral test yet for populist leader Aleksandar Vučić, amid deep political divisions, mass anti-government protests and mounting concerns over the integrity of the electoral process.
Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is seeking to retain power following nationwide demonstrations against the government. Its main challenger is a student-led movement that emerged from a wave of anti-corruption protests that has continued for nearly two years.
“These are the first elections in more than a decade whose outcome is genuinely very uncertain,” Vladimir Bilčik, a former European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
Vučić resigned as president at the end of September, clearing the way for him to run for prime minister.
Opinion polls suggest that Serbia’s electorate is largely divided between supporters of a broad coalition built around the ruling party and those backing the student movement.
The students have no formal leader, and their electoral list consists of non-partisan figures, most of them university professors.
A total of 18 electoral lists are competing for 250 seats in the Serbian parliament. They include two opposition coalitions already represented in parliament: one pro-European and the other right-wing and Eurosceptic.
Most electoral lists must secure at least 3 percent of the vote to win parliamentary seats. Nine lists representing national minorities are exempt from the standard threshold and face a lower barrier.
Domestic and international observers have warned of possible abuses by the authorities, following reports of voter pressure and irregularities at polling stations during the previous elections in 2023.
The government maintains that it has implemented all recommendations made by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) election observation mission.
However, RFE/RL investigations have identified potential irregularities at an early stage of the electoral process, particularly in the voter register.
The elections are also taking place amid allegations of illegal surveillance and the arrest of government opponents. After 14 years in power, Vučić has strengthened his control over Serbia’s security services.
Between East and West
The elections are being held just days before the second anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy.
On November 1, 2024, 16 people died when a recently renovated canopy collapsed at the city’s railway station, triggering nationwide anti-government protests. Led by students, demonstrators demanded accountability and accused the authorities of corruption.
The government has repeatedly rejected the allegations, although several officials, including two ministers, were arrested or resigned following the disaster. Judicial proceedings to establish responsibility for the collapse remain ongoing.
Several US lawmakers have warned that Moscow could play an active role in Serbia’s elections. The European Parliament has also raised concerns about Russian influence operations in the country, whose government maintains close ties with the Kremlin.
“Russia is deploying its best resources, tactics and methods to monitor, suppress and undermine the citizens of Serbia, as well as the powerful student movement that wants to restore the rule of law in the country,” Republican Congressman Joe Wilson told RFE/RL.
Beyond Russia, Serbia’s main gas supplier, Vučić has sought to strengthen ties with China, a major investor in the country, while maintaining Serbia’s long-standing ambition to join the European Union. He has also pursued closer relations with the United States and Israel.
During the election campaign, Vučić pledged to continue this foreign policy approach, including rejecting EU calls for Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
The student movement, meanwhile, has focused its campaign on fighting corruption, leaving foreign policy largely on the sidelines.
Nevertheless, the students have opposed sanctions against Russia and reiterated support for Belgrade’s official position of refusing to recognize Kosovo’s independence.
In a document published in May, the movement stated that “the preservation of Kosovo is the common denominator of all their efforts.”
“This shows that even the students cannot escape the trap of Serbia’s nationalist politics, which is built around the Kosovo myth,” Belgrade-based professor Žarko Korać told RFE/RL at the time.
Serbia’s EU accession process has also stalled, leaving the country—which was once among the leading candidates alongside Montenegro—lagging behind in the enlargement process.
No new negotiating chapter has been opened since the end of 2021.
The main obstacles include declining democratic standards, unresolved relations with Kosovo and, above all, Serbia’s refusal to impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Concerns Over Electoral Integrity
A bipartisan group of US senators has urged Serbian authorities to ensure a level playing field for all election participants, citing what they described as “troubling signs” ahead of the October 25 vote.
A statement published on October 21 by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee referred to reports of illegal surveillance targeting opposition members and efforts to discredit and obstruct election observation missions.
An independent forensic analysis conducted by domestic and international experts has confirmed nearly 20 cases involving the use of illegal surveillance software since the beginning of 2026.
The opposition and student movement accuse the authorities of conducting the surveillance, while government officials deny spying on their opponents.
Authorities have also rejected allegations of unequal electoral conditions, pressure on voters and public-sector employees, misuse of public resources, unequal media coverage and problems with the voter register. These concerns were highlighted by the OSCE election observation mission following the 2023 vote.
The government says it has implemented all recommendations issued by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) through amendments to four electoral laws.
However, four employees of institutions operating under the authority of the Serbian government in Kosovo told RFE/RL that they were facing pressure to vote for the ruling party in the October 25 elections.
They agreed to speak on condition that their identities remain confidential.
Domestic election observers have documented similar workplace practices in several Serbian municipalities.
ODIHR has deployed more than 300 observers to monitor the elections.
In its interim report, published before the October 25 vote, the mission said some recommendations had yet to be implemented, including those concerning the accuracy of the voter register. It also highlighted unusually high numbers of registered voters in certain municipalities and at specific addresses.
“The interim report covers some of the issues we are hearing about, as well as those we can examine in greater detail and continue monitoring. We are approaching this process practically from scratch, without any predetermined conclusions,” Thomas Rymer, an OSCE/ODIHR mission official, told RFE/RL.
The authorities say the voter register, which contains approximately 6.5 million eligible voters, is “the most up-to-date ever.”
However, RFE/RL found that more than 500,000 people listed in the register did not have a complete address, with their registered details missing either a street name or a house number.
The investigation also found hundreds of voters registered at public buildings, including social welfare centres, as well as at residential properties where the number of registered individuals appeared too high for the available accommodation.
These findings have renewed scrutiny of allegations previously raised by domestic and international observers that the authorities organized “mass voter migration.” The alleged practice involves Serbian citizens from neighbouring countries being registered at addresses in Serbia to obtain voting rights there, potentially benefiting the ruling party.
The authorities have rejected these accusations.
RFE/RL’s investigations also found that the number of eligible voters for Serbian elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo had increased ahead of the vote.
In both places, ethnic Serbs are considered an important source of support for Vučić’s party.
At the same time, voting has become more difficult for other members of the Serbian diaspora.
Despite a record number of people registering to vote abroad—three times as many as in previous elections—the authorities rejected requests to open polling stations in dozens of cities without providing explanations.
As a result, some voters will have to travel thousands of kilometres to cast their ballots. Another complication is that polling stations will operate according to Serbian time, meaning some will remain open late into the night in parts of the world.
These will be the sixth parliamentary elections since the SNS came to power in 2012.
Vučić founded the party after splitting from the far-right Serbian Radical Party, led by Vojislav Šešelj, who was convicted of war crimes by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Šešelj’s party now supports the SNS.
Since taking power, the SNS has won every election.
Over the past decade, Serbia has experienced a decline in freedoms, a trend also highlighted in the latest report by international watchdog Freedom House, which places the country among those that have suffered some of the most significant deteriorations in freedom.
