In the coming months, Russia could carry out a provocation, likely involving casualties, against one of NATO’s Eastern European members to divert attention from a new offensive in Ukraine.
This assessment was given in an interview with Ukrinform by Jarosław Kraszewski, a retired Polish general and current head of the private defense company RBL Defence Polska, as reported by Telegrafi.
“I estimate the probability of this happening in the near future at around 75–80 percent. It could occur at the Poland–Lithuania–Belarus border or in the Baltic Sea. This provocation would aim to divert Western attention from a major new Russian offensive in Ukraine,” he said.
In other words, Kraszewski added, “it is a provocation intended to tie up European forces and resources and shift focus away from Ukraine.”
The retired Polish general noted that the provocation could take place just before the start of the offensive in Ukraine, potentially in April–May.
He suggested that one possible scenario could involve sabotage targeting energy infrastructure connecting the Kaliningrad region with Belarus.
“The FSB does not care about its own citizens, so it could sacrifice them to claim, for example, that the Poles blew something up together with Ukrainians or cut some cables. Then they would claim to respond with some counteraction, for instance in Suwalki [northeastern Poland]. It could be anything: an environmental disaster, damage to a chemical reservoir, or an attack on the energy sector. They will want there to be human casualties,” Kraszewski said.
