German General Carsten Breuer expects that Russia may test NATO militarily by 2029 or even earlier. “Different indicators—rearmament, personnel build-up, economic and political developments—are all converging on one point: 2029. Could it happen sooner? Yes,” Breuer said in a joint interview with his British counterpart, Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, for German media.
Knighton explained why the threat from Russia is taken so seriously: Russia is actively learning from its war in Ukraine, developing new technologies and military capabilities, and has shown a willingness to strike sovereign states. “The closer you are to the Russian border, the more you feel it,” he said.
Amid troop adjustments and unclear signals from Washington, both officials emphasized NATO unity. “The problem is in Moscow and nowhere else,” Breuer stated, stressing that Germany needs immediate readiness what he called the ability for “war-fighting tonight” as well as stronger capabilities by 2029 and technological superiority by 2035.
The interview also addressed shifts in U.S. military planning in Europe. Breuer confirmed that the planned deployment of a long-range missile battalion in Germany under President Biden will not proceed, calling it a strategic issue. Temporary alternatives are now being considered, including purchasing commercially available systems. He also said the planned withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany is militarily manageable.
When asked about recruiting young people into military service, Breuer emphasized urgency, saying freedom, peace, and prosperity are currently under threat. Knighton added that strong armed forces in Europe help deter conflict, stating: “We don’t want war. We prevent it through strength.”
