The European Union is facing a dramatic escalation in sophisticated hybrid warfare, according to a new briefing by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS). The report, titled “EU Response to Hybrid Threats” and published in July 2026, identifies Russia, China, and Belarus as the principal architects of hostile activities designed to destabilize democratic institutions, fracture social cohesion, and sabotage critical infrastructure without triggering an open armed conflict.
Escalation Statistics (2022–2026)
The frequency and intensity of these attacks have surged alongside geopolitical tensions. The EPRS data reveals a disturbing acceleration in Russian-led hostile activities:
- Exponential Growth: Hostile hybrid actions quadrupled between 2022 and 2023, then tripled again between 2023 and 2024.
- Sabotage Record: Between January 2022 and February 2026, security services identified 152 specific incidents directly attributed to Russian actors.
- Information Warfare: An EEAS report from March 2026 identifies Russia (29%) and China (6%) as the leading generators of Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI).
Key Fronts in the “New Battlefields”
The briefing categorizes the hybrid assault into three primary domains of operation:
1. Cyber-Espionage and Infrastructure Sabotage
The digital domain is no longer just for data theft; it is an operational tool for paralysis.
- Critical Targets: Public administration, digital infrastructure, and the financial sector are the most frequently targeted sectors.
- Physical Sabotage: The report highlights a shift toward “hard” sabotage, citing the destruction of Baltic Sea subsea cables (including the Balticconnector) and rail network disruptions as clear indicators of a new frontline. The “Shadow Fleet” is identified as a primary vector for potential undersea infrastructure threats.
2. Information Manipulation (FIMI)
Utilizing sophisticated operations like “Ghostwriter” and “Doppelgänger,” foreign actors are increasingly using AI-generated deepfakes, bot networks, and fake media portals to erode public trust. Key targets for these campaigns have included high-stakes events like the 2024 Paris Olympics and various presidential election cycles across Eastern Europe, including Romania and Moldova.
3. Military Provocations
Russia and Belarus are testing NATO’s eastern flank through persistent border and airspace violations.
- Airspace Violations: From Russian cruise missiles entering Polish airspace in March 2024 to the crash of a Russian drone in Romania in May 2026.
- Psychological Pressure: Belarus has employed “planned” balloon incursions into Polish and Lithuanian territories as a method of keeping civilian populations in a state of constant anxiety.
The EU’s Call for a Unified Response
The European Parliament is now pushing for a paradigm shift in how the bloc manages these non-conventional threats. The EPRS briefing outlines a roadmap for a more robust defense:
- Deepened EU-NATO Cooperation: Moving beyond traditional partnerships to share real-time intelligence on hybrid threats.
- Infrastructure Hardening: Treating undersea cables, pipelines, and rail systems as “critical national security assets” with elevated surveillance and protection standards.
- Information Resilience: Enhancing the EU’s ability to counter AI-generated disinformation campaigns by improving the speed of data-sharing between member states.
- Strengthening Partner Networks: Building closer coalitions with non-EU partner nations to detect and block coordinated cyberattacks before they reach the bloc’s digital perimeter.
