After 14 years of dominance in Serbian politics, Aleksandar Vučić faces the biggest challenge to his rule in the parliamentary elections on October 25, from an opposition movement that emerged out of mass student protests.
However, the campaign has been accompanied by growing concerns about the fairness of the electoral process. Radio Free Europe’s Balkan Service has found that around 500,000 people are registered to vote without a complete address, raising suspicions of possible electoral manipulation.
Serbia’s last elections, held in 2023, were followed by protests after international observers reported irregularities, including voters being bussed in from neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina and voter intimidation.
Vučić resigned as president at the end of September and, unable to run for a third term, is now seeking to become prime minister, a position he held from 2014 until he became head of state in 2017.
His government has been characterised by efforts to maintain a balance: he has sought to cultivate good relations with Western countries while simultaneously moving closer to Russia and China. However, Chinese investments have come at a political cost.
The Novi Sad tragedy
The elections are taking place just days before the second anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy.
The deaths of 16 people following the collapse of a renovated canopy at the city’s railway station on November 1, 2024, triggered protests across the country. The tragedy came amid reports of corrupt practices at the construction site, part of a major government project led by Chinese companies.
The government denied the allegations, while the protests were met with police violence and arrests. One of the most serious incidents occurred on March 15, 2025, when authorities allegedly used an illegal sonic weapon against peaceful demonstrators.
Days after another student protest in June this year, Vučić announced that he would resign and call early elections.
Polls so far indicate that Serbia’s electorate is largely divided between those supporting a broad coalition around the ruling party and those backing the student movement.
“These are the first elections in more than a decade whose outcome is genuinely very uncertain,” said Vladimir Bilčik, a former European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia.
The students have no formal leader, and their electoral list consists of non-partisan figures, most of them university professors. Leading their list of candidates is cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, although the students have clarified that this does not necessarily mean he would become prime minister if they win.
Fair elections?
The Serbian government says it has since implemented all the recommendations made by the OSCE election observation mission following its criticism of the 2023 elections. However, an interim OSCE report disputed this claim. The organisation has 300 observers in Serbia monitoring the vote.
Radio Free Europe’s investigation has identified irregularities at the first stage of the electoral process: the voter register. RFE/RL found that more than half a million people listed in the register did not have a precise address, lacking either a street name or a house number.
RFE/RL also found hundreds of registered voters listed at public facilities, including social welfare centres, and in homes that could not reasonably accommodate so many residents.
These findings have attracted public attention because election observers have previously raised suspicions that authorities organised “mass voter migration”, in which Serbian citizens from neighbouring countries were allegedly registered at addresses in Serbia to gain voting rights there, potentially benefiting the ruling party.
Investigations have also revealed an increase in the number of eligible voters for Serbian elections in Bosnia and Kosovo ahead of the vote. Both are places where ethnic Serbs are considered an important source of support for Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
Four employees of Serbia-funded institutions in Kosovo told RFE/RL that they were being pressured to vote for the ruling party. Their identities and exact workplaces cannot be disclosed. In Kosovo’s Serb-majority areas, various educational and healthcare institutions receive funding from the Serbian state.
Domestic election observers have documented similar practices in workplaces across several Serbian municipalities.
The elections are also taking place amid allegations of illegal surveillance and the arrest of government opponents, as Vučić has tightened his control over the security services during his 14 years in power.
A statement issued by the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on October 21 highlighted reports of illegal surveillance of opposition members and efforts to discredit and undermine election observation missions.
A report by SHARE, a Serbian non-profit organisation focused on digital security, together with researchers from the University of Toronto, alleged at least 16 cases of the use of Pegasus surveillance software, which is illegal in Serbia, during 2026.
The opposition and students accuse the authorities of conducting surveillance, while government officials deny spying on their opponents.
Serbia has experienced a decline in freedoms over the past decade, a trend also reflected in the latest report by international watchdog Freedom House.
Between East and West
Several US lawmakers have warned that Moscow could play an active role in Serbia’s elections, while the European Parliament has also expressed concern about Russian influence operations in the country.
“Russia is making its best resources, tactics and methods available to monitor, suppress and obstruct the citizens of Serbia, as well as the powerful student movement seeking to restore the rule of law in the country,” said Republican Congressman Joe Wilson.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally expressed his support for Vučić ahead of the elections.
During the campaign, Vučić pledged to continue his foreign policy course, including rejecting EU calls to impose sanctions on Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The student movement has focused its campaign on fighting corruption, leaving foreign policy in the background. However, it has opposed international sanctions against Russia and reaffirmed its support for Belgrade’s official position, which refuses to recognise Kosovo’s independence.
Meanwhile, Serbia’s EU integration process has stalled, leaving the country, once among the frontrunners alongside Montenegro, at the back of the candidate group. No new chapter in Serbia’s EU accession negotiations has been opened since the end of 2021.
Democratic backsliding, unresolved relations with Kosovo and the refusal to impose sanctions on Russia are among the main reasons for the deadlock.
