Is Serbia’s recent military buildup a sign of intentions to destabilize neighboring Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, or even to initiate military conflict? Concerns are rising as leaders from these neighboring states issue strong warnings.
Kosovo’s President, Vjosa Osmani, and Bosnia’s President, Denis Becirovic, have both raised alarms about Serbia’s potential ambitions. In an interview in September, Osmani expressed hope for EU and NATO integration for the Western Balkans, emphasizing that “treating Serbia as it truly is—a satellite of Russia that is deepening its military, economic, and political ties with Moscow—is essential.”
Becirovic also issued a strong warning, this time from the UN General Assembly in New York. “From this platform, I want to warn the global community that the Serbian leadership once again threatens Bosnia-Herzegovina’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he stated.
Serbia’s Growing Arsenal
For years, Serbia has been investing heavily in its military, acquiring advanced weaponry such as French fighter jets and Russian attack helicopters, which Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has described as “flying tanks.” Chinese air defense systems were also delivered to Serbia soon after the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, further boosting its military capabilities. Reports suggest Serbia has even procured Iranian drones, similar to those used by Russia to attack Ukrainian cities.
According to The Economist, Serbia’s extensive arms acquisitions have raised concerns among its neighbors. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that in 2022, Serbia’s defense budget, at €1.3 billion, was ten times larger than that of Kosovo, underscoring Serbia’s military dominance in the region.
Image: Thomas Brey/dpa/picture alliance
The “Serb World” Agenda
Many question why Serbia has been amassing such an arsenal without facing direct threats. Is President Vucic’s administration preparing for an aggressive stance against neighboring states? Some observers see Serbia’s push for a “Serb World”—a toned-down version of Slobodan Milosevic’s “Greater Serbia” ideology—as evidence of its expansionist intentions. This idea resonates with many ethnic Serbs in Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The influence of this nationalist agenda is notable. Several Serbian government officials, including Vucic and Interior Minister Ivica Dacic, served in Milosevic’s administration during the 1990s, a period marked by devastating wars that claimed over 130,000 lives.
The All-Serb Assembly and Regional Tensions
In June, President Vucic hosted an “All-Serb Assembly” attended by Serbian representatives from former Yugoslav states. The assembly’s slogan, “Serbia and Republika Srpska—One People, One Assembly,” hints at aspirations for closer unification. The assembly’s declaration referred to Kosovo as an inalienable part of Serbia and emphasized the “unified national interests” of the Serbian people.
This declaration received swift condemnation from the German Foreign Office, which called it a “worrying” and “damaging” move for stability in the Western Balkans. Bosnia’s President Becirovic characterized the declaration as a “dangerous program” that threatens Bosnia’s sovereignty.
Is Conflict Inevitable?
The military imbalance between Serbia and its neighbors raises concerns, especially considering that most of these neighboring states lack robust military capabilities. Without the protection of NATO peacekeepers in Kosovo and the EU’s EUFOR mission in Bosnia, these regions would be vulnerable to any hostile moves by Belgrade.
Recent Serbian military activity along the Kosovo border and paramilitary incidents have sparked unease, recalling the 1990s conflict. Notably, Serbian paramilitary attacks contributed to the onset of wars in Croatia and Bosnia.
Image: Darko Vojinovic/AP/dpa/picture alliance
Republika Srpska’s Secessionist Agenda
Belgrade’s influence over Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who has been pushing for Republika Srpska’s independence, adds to the regional tensions. Recently, CIA Director William Burns visited Bosnia to address Dodik’s separatist agenda, highlighting the growing international concern. In Sarajevo, officials are preparing for a potential push for secession by Republika Srpska, a move that could provoke Serbian military intervention.
Image: Visar Kryeziu/dpa/AP/picture alliance
How Would a Future Trump Administration React?
As tensions simmer, questions loom about how a future U.S. administration, particularly under Donald Trump, might respond. Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, a possible Secretary of State pick, has close ties with Serbia, as does Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.
This article was initially published in German and adapted for clarity.
