Four years of war and international isolation have significantly changed Vladimir Putin’s position in relations with China. The Russian president increasingly appears to be a partner seeking concessions rather than setting terms, while Beijing is gradually preparing for the possibility of his departure from power, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports.
In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping described Putin as a role model and praised his global influence. However, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the relationship between Moscow and Beijing has shifted considerably.
Today, nearly 40% of Russia’s foreign trade is conducted with China, while Russia accounts for less than 4% of China’s foreign trade. This economic imbalance has placed Putin in an increasingly dependent position in his dealings with Beijing.
During Putin’s visit to Beijing in May, the Russian side hoped to sign a major agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. However, Chinese officials reportedly conditioned the project on Russia selling gas at prices comparable to those on the domestic Russian market. Such a demand would effectively force the Kremlin to subsidize the construction costs. The agreement was ultimately not signed.
German businessman Jörg Wuttke summarized the situation by saying:
“Xi welcomed Putin as a guest in his palace and sent him home.”
The shift in relations is also visible through symbolism. After Putin’s visit, Chinese media published a photo showing the Russian leader looking at a joint portrait with Xi. Beijing insisted that the image was not intended to humiliate Putin.
Chinese officials are also reportedly concerned about Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea. Beijing fears that the transfer of Russian technology could strengthen Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities, potentially bringing South Korea and Japan closer to the United States.
China Is Building Ties With Russia’s Future Elite
At the same time, China is strengthening relations with Russian officials and members of the elite whom it believes could influence the country’s future after Putin.
According to WSJ, Beijing is building long-term relationships not only with the current Russian government but also with potential future leaders — a sign that China may be preparing for a possible political transition in Moscow.
At the end of June, Beijing publicly called on Kyiv and Moscow to halt hostilities and return to negotiations. During that statement, a Chinese diplomat also referred for the first time to the suffering of Ukrainian civilians.
However, in early July, reports emerged that Russia and China had conducted secret military exercises related to the war in Ukraine. The drills reportedly involved generals from both armies and were approved personally by Russia’s Defense Minister.
The developments highlight a changing dynamic between Moscow and Beijing: while China continues to cooperate with Russia strategically, it appears increasingly focused on protecting its own interests and preparing for different political scenarios in Russia’s future.
