The United States and its allies are underestimating the growing strategic coordination between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, according to retired U.S. Navy Admiral Mark Montgomery, who warns that the four authoritarian states are increasingly cooperating across military, technological, economic and cyber domains.
In a recent interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Montgomery, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, said Washington has failed to fully recognize the scale of cooperation among the four countries and has therefore struggled to develop an adequate response.
Montgomery and co-authors Bradley Bowman and Elaine Dezenski document more than 600 instances of cooperation among the four states in their recently published book, “Axis of Aggressors.” They argue that the partnership is becoming an increasingly important challenge for the United States and its allies.
“Ukraine is clearly fighting Russia, Iran, North Korea and China,” Montgomery said, pointing to Tehran’s provision of Shahed drone technology to Russia, North Korea’s supply of millions of artillery and mortar shells and the deployment of thousands of North Korean troops, as well as China’s role in supplying Russia with microelectronics used in advanced weapons.
He argued that the scale of support goes well beyond the headline figures often cited by Western governments.
North Korea, for example, has deployed approximately 12,000 troops to support Russia and has supplied an estimated 5 million to 6 million artillery and mortar rounds, Montgomery said. Iran has provided not only thousands of drones but also technology that has enabled Russia to manufacture Iranian-designed systems domestically.
China, meanwhile, has supplied microelectronics that contribute to Russia’s production of ballistic, hypersonic and cruise missiles.
Montgomery warned that the same pattern of cooperation is increasingly visible in the Middle East, where Iran benefits from relationships with Russia, China and, historically, North Korea.
He criticized what he described as a tendency in Europe to view conflicts involving Iran and the United States as confrontations between two equivalent sides, arguing that Tehran is part of a wider authoritarian network.
“Europe still looks at this conflict and says these are two equal combatants: Iran and the United States,” Montgomery said. “That is absurd.”
He also warned that the United States remains insufficiently prepared to deal with multiple simultaneous conflicts.
According to Montgomery, the Pentagon faces two major challenges: the size and composition of U.S. military forces and the availability of ammunition. While he said the overall force structure is in relatively better condition, he described ammunition stockpiles as the more serious problem after decades of underinvestment and increased demands linked to support for Ukraine and operations involving Iran.
“Our stocks were already inadequate after 25 years of underinvestment,” Montgomery said, warning that the pressure created by multiple conflicts could quickly expose critical shortages.
He also questioned the effectiveness of sanctions as the primary response to the four countries’ growing cooperation, particularly because Chinese technology can enter military supply chains through dual-use products.
A component exported to China for legitimate civilian purposes can subsequently be redirected toward military applications and eventually transferred to Russia, making enforcement considerably more difficult, he said.
Montgomery argued that Washington already possesses many of the legal tools required to impose greater economic pressure, but often fails to enforce existing sanctions effectively or allows broad exemptions.
He further warned that any future negotiations with Tehran must address more than Iran’s nuclear program. Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them remains essential, he said, while also stressing the importance of addressing Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, regional armed networks and influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
Montgomery said the war in Ukraine has also become a “laboratory” for modern warfare, providing valuable battlefield experience to both Western countries and their adversaries.
He argued that Russia is actively sharing battlefield lessons with China, Iran and North Korea, while the United States has maintained only a limited military presence in Ukraine and therefore has fewer opportunities to gather direct operational lessons.
North Korean forces fighting alongside Russia are gaining firsthand experience of modern combat, while Moscow is reportedly exchanging military technologies with its partners in return for their support.
According to Montgomery, China may ultimately be the biggest beneficiary of this exchange. He cited reports that Russia is sharing submarine noise-reduction technology with Beijing, potentially helping China address one of its key naval disadvantages relative to the United States.
He also pointed to reported Russian assistance with large-scale helicopter operations, which could potentially contribute to Chinese preparations for a future military operation across the Taiwan Strait.
Montgomery said the most important structural reform Washington should undertake over the next decade is to overhaul military procurement.
For decades, he argued, the United States could afford lengthy development cycles because it faced no comparable strategic competitor. That environment has changed.
“Procurement should be measured in months, not years” for drones, counter-drone systems and munitions, Montgomery said, while major platforms such as ships and aircraft should be developed over years rather than decades.
He concluded that maintaining U.S. military superiority will depend increasingly on Washington’s ability to accelerate procurement, accept greater levels of risk and build the flexibility needed to compete with increasingly coordinated adversaries.
