The Student Movement has won in Serbia. To defeat a populist leader like Aleksandar Vučić, who seeks to appeal to everyone pro-Europeans and nationalists alike, depending on his audience the anti-Vučić front brought together very different political currents. Vučić has demonstrated an ability to engage in dialogue with Russia, Serbia’s historic ally, while also welcoming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Serbia.
The anti-Vučić front includes pro-European forces, but also nationalists who oppose him from the right, accusing him of having “sold out” Kosovo. It includes environmentalists who fought against Rio Tinto’s lithium-mining project in Serbia, which would serve Brussels’ green transition but has faced opposition over its environmental consequences. There are also those who have paid tribute to convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić, alongside those who view with anguish the atrocities committed by Serbs during the 1990s, the Milan-based newspaper Avvenire writes.
The Italian newspaper notes that even the opposition daily Danas has raised questions about how long the Student List, made up of people with different ideologies, will manage to remain united, and what decisions it will take regarding the European Union, Russia and Kosovo. It also asks how much the political system will obstruct the movement and how much room for manoeuvre it will have, for example, when municipalities and cities remain under the control of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), Vučić’s party.
So far, discussions have centred on a transitional government that would lead to new elections, with former National Bank of Serbia governor Dejan Šoškić mentioned as a possible prime minister.
In his speech following the defeat, Vučić assured the public that “no one will run away” and said his party would oppose the new government by every means available in Parliament. He then raised the possibility that the new government could impose sanctions on Russia by March or April.
Vučić’s latest accusation is predictable: he claims the new leadership wants to recognise Kosovo’s independence. In reality, these statements serve to promote the image of a “colour revolution” allegedly orchestrated from abroad and directed against Serbian interests.
“The new government’s priority should be the fight against crime and corruption, alongside restoring the rule of law and functioning democratic institutions,” explains Strahinja Subotić, a researcher at the European Policy Centre in Belgrade. “These reforms could facilitate closer ties with Brussels, which could send a positive signal by opening new negotiating chapters, starting with Cluster 3, covering competitiveness and inclusive growth.”
Expectations, Subotić continues, “are more restrained when it comes to normalising relations with Pristina and policy towards Russia. The new leadership may review previous agreements on Kosovo and is unlikely to impose sanctions on Moscow in the near future, as these issues were not central during the election campaign.”
The analyst therefore concludes that the expectation is for “the EU to prioritise democratic reforms initially, while avoiding premature pressure on foreign policy and Kosovo. Civil society views this phase with hope, while acknowledging that it is still too early to predict decisive progress in the accession process.”
This is also because, according to the latest Eurobarometer survey, only 33% of Serbs believe in the path towards European Union membership.
In any case, another political battle remains: the presidential election expected in December, which will determine Vučić’s successor as head of state. Within what was, until Sunday, the opposition, there is now a degree of optimism that would have been unimaginable just two days earlier.
