A new constituency-based MRP poll has sent shockwaves through British politics, projecting that Nigel Farage’s Reform Party could win as many as 311 seats in Parliament—just 15 short of an outright majority. Such a result would place Farage within reach of becoming the UK’s next Prime Minister.
The data shows Reform surging to 27% support, overtaking Labour on 21%. This marks a dramatic shift in momentum, overturning expectations and reflecting a powerful backlash against the current ruling forces. Reform’s rise is striking: from 15% in the last election to 27% today, with particular strength in key constituencies where victories now appear within grasp.
Labour is projected to suffer a dramatic collapse, losing up to 268 seats and being reduced to just 144 MPs—a worse outcome than even its most pessimistic forecasts. The party faces especially heavy losses in its traditional strongholds, many of which Reform captured as the second-largest force in 2024.
The Conservatives are also on course for a historic defeat, set to lose around 45 seats and fall below 100 MPs. Analysts say this could mark the end of an era for a party that has governed Britain for more than a decade.
Unlike in the 2024 election, when Reform’s vote share was spread too thinly to secure significant representation, this time the party has concentrated its efforts on winnable constituencies, translating public support into tangible parliamentary gains.
If these projections materialize, Nigel Farage would not only reshape the balance of power in Westminster but also achieve a historic victory few had anticipated even months ago.
